Facts or Narrative?

 Russai is continuing a tactic that has been used by many tyrants and wannabe tyrants over the years, lying to their people.  I suppose some might argue they aren't the ones lying, a Russian sympathizer for example, but the concept that the Nazis of Ukraine were at fault flies in the face of some logic.  The fighting is taking place in the Ukraine, not Russia, so I guess they committed reverse aggression.

You would like to think that people would wise up to the lying, but hard to criticize them who live in a country where the media is controlled by the ruling party when here with free press, so many believe similar lies. Some here seem to work hard to believe and make no attempt to find the truth.

Something I have noticed is we assume perfect knowledge by the people we don't support. This allows us to say they are lying when they simply don't know things.  

Up until the Russians actually invaded, there was some uncertainty about whether they would so the impact on energy prices was debatable.  Once they did and we applied sanctions, the impact became apparent.  You could easily argue that the impact has been greatly mitigated by the administration's actions but in our current political environment, all that is emphasized is how bad the impact was.

All we see generally is biased reporting, not factual stuff.  

The facts are not important to the narrative.

Help People do the Right Thing

 In everything we do we should have both short term and long-term goals.  Ideally the short-term ones support the long-term ones, but not always.  For example, we have a long-term goal of eliminating carbon-based energy sources and replacing them with renewable ones.  However, replacing high carbon sources with lower ones might be a good short-term goal.

In that respect we can't be opposed to certain actions which serve as stop gate measures.  We also need to be aware that in order to make any progress we need to have the support of the majority of the people and hopefully all of them.

This can be a long crusade.  Look at how long it took to get the message out on cigarettes.  I don't think it's fully out even now.  People still smoke even though it has become expensive and clearly a known danger.  Stopping can be hard and similarly transitioning from oil based to renewable is also hard.  

One of the issues relates to our capitalistic system.  The Government does not want to influence or benefit particular companies.  This makes scammer seem as legitimate as everyone else.  Should the Government pick winners and losers?  No, but it can create standards and identify those who violate them.

Buyer beware is one of our fundamentals.  Some have trouble being aware.  We can make that easier.

Cruel Nature?

 I used to have an office that looked out on a seldom used railroad spur.  In the winter the trees lining the spur was home to birds who would cluster together for I assume warmth.  Every morning quite a few of them lay dead on the ground under the trees. 

I don't know if someone cleaned them up or if they provided food to other animals.  I worked late enough to see them return for the night nosily as they jostled for a spot.  It clearly was a life-or-death matter although I read that the ones who died probably were malnourished.

I guess the ones who had trouble finding enough food had two problems.  They weren't strong enough to get a good spot where the warmth of the flock would help them and they couldn't withstand the cold being undernourished.

It seems cruel but the flock seemed to survive and when it became time to breed the weak had been weeded out.  Nature isn't cruel but it is pragmatic.  Your existence is not guaranteed, you have to fight for it. 

I never researched what type of birds these were but I'm pretty sure if I went to that office (it might not exist) the flock would still be flourishing.  

Nature made it stronger each year.

Disagree, but Don't Hate

 People have had to deal with disasters in their personal lives. The loss of a job, a serious illness or unexpected death can be devastating.  There are some support systems but only to a certain extent.  None of this is new and the one thing we know is that people will cope the best they can.

It does seem to me that somehow, we have many people who can't deal with even minor setbacks, at least in the scheme of things.  I was looking at pictures from Ukraine, a pretty modern country where the invaders apparently somewhat randomly shot people in Bucha.  These were men and women who had normal lives.  The pictures are gruesome in and of themselves but the ones where I guess relatives or neighbors were trying to identify the dead struck me the most.

Sometimes after a terrible accident or natural disaster we see similar images, but this seems totally random and particularly callous.  It made me wonder how we would react to similar carnage in this country.  Based on the current level of rhetoric, I don't think it is so impossible.

It's time to stop repeating or believing hate.  Americans who disagree with you on an issue are just as American as you are.  I don't personally support people having abortions, but I don't consider them murderers.  I'm not sure how we can dictate to one person that they lose control of their own body ever.

Still those who have an opposing view are not evil.  We just disagree.

Increase Production?

If you consider the Republican efforts, if any, to control inflation, it is basically to punish workers and reward big corporations who are profiting from the situation.

Some elements of inflation are external to this country, but others are not.   For example, American oil companies could reopen closed wells and increase the supply.  They say they are too expensive, but they have a good economic reason not to.  If a barrel of oil is selling for say $70 and it costs $40 to produce it you get a profits of $30 for each barrel.  If the price goes to $100 you are making $70 a barrel.  Say you produce a million barrels that's 70 million dollars.  Suppose you can double the production and drive the price of oil down to $70.   The new production drives the cost of production to $50 (these are the more expensive wells) only make 20 a barrel and at 2 million barrels you make $40 million dollars.  

Oil executives know that $70 million is more than $40 million so why open up those wells.  Since these same oil companies have bought up most of the available leases, expect no help from them.  In fairness they couldn't justify it to their shareholders.

Supreme Court

 There is some dispute about whether the Supreme Court has become more political.  Let's be realistic. It has.  Until a few years ago Supreme Court Justices could be filibustered.  Then we had the situation where the Republican senate refused to even hear arguments about Obama's nominee.  They knew by any standard he was an acceptable candidate and that they might not be able to filibuster his nomination if it got that far.    

Under Trump they dropped any pretense and dropped the filibuster capability.  Now the filibuster prevented proposing nominees so unacceptable to the other side that you could get 60 votes.  This led to rhe politicization of the court as nominees could be clearly partisan.  

Still, it isn't required that they be.  The latest nominee has all the qualifications and moderate opinions that should have led to a smooth confirmation.  Only 3 Republicans voted for her and they are trying to present her as a radical.  Her confirmation is historic and the fact that Republicans walked out while she wa being applauded is more a reflection of their closed mindedness than her.

More Representative Government

 If you frequent social media or watch some shows which pretend to be news you are probably familiar with accusations about (liberals/conservatives) trying to ruin this country.  These accusations are generally based on taking a position attributed to some and ascribing it to all.

Both sides have their share of hotheads and crazies, but what they say or do is not the official policy of either party, unless of course it is.  We have a lot of media people who like to pretend it is. 

Even worse, our primary system allows people with extreme views to become the official party nominee.  Unfortunately, too many Americans don't pay enough attention and vote based on name recognition or media exposure.

Even worse is that primary participation is so low and hardly reflects the will of the majority.

More honesty and better representation are the goals and we are not that close.  

Technology and Scams

 One of the problems we face as modern people is how complicated the world is and our inability to keep up.  Many things seem the same, and some, are but too many have become complex.  Thiis has created a divide between the techs and the others.  Take banking, something most of us have had to use over the years.  I know people who don't trust electronic transactions and still do everything in person, although some have been forced to use ATMs by the banks.  So, some of those have been fitted with interceptor readers that act real but steal your info and money. 

This is hardly the most sophisticated scam but it is aimed at those who do things in person.  I know people who have almost been scammed, or maybe they were.  Scammers like to prey on people's good nature and desire to help.  I guarantee you that the current situation in Ukraine has given rise to many scams designed to take advantage of your desire to help.

In fact the two aspects that make us susceptible is the desire to help others and greed.  The best defense i to forget about being polite or helping strangers via online solicitations.  If you want to help somebody, don't click on an e-mail link, find a reputable site yourself.  

Supreme Court Nominee

 It seems likely that we are soon going to have our first Black Female Supreme court justice.  The committee that reviewed her went totally partisan in their vote.  While the Republicans on the committee used various reasons, it comes down to her being nominated by a Democratic President, the fact that she has some liberal opinions and the fact that she is Black.

Since she is replacing a long serving liberal justice, her being liberal does not change the court balance so when you see liars talking about her vote could have swung past decisions that were decided by one vote, it isn't likely since she is likely to vote the same way the person she is replacing would have.  It shows how contemptuous Republicans are of their base.  

They have already declared, sight unseen, that they will block any future Biden nominees.  For all those who regret the loss of bipartisanship, if we ever had any, this is a clear indicator of why.

Facing Reality

 Life is unpredictable.  Sometimes we think we can predict it, but it tends to surprise us.  Not long ago, common knowledge was that if Russia decided to invade Ukraine, they would overrun it.  Now clearly that didn't happen.  In fact, I was reading about how Putin thought the Ukrainians would welcome him with flowers.  If you surround yourself with "Yes Men" you are living in a bubble.  That works until you leave the bubble.

We see a lot of that in this country now.  It seems different to me now but maybe I was just naive when I was young.  Studies show that most people live with people who share their views.  I don't mean that they live among other Americans who share fundamental values, rather they live with partisans who believe things that are controversial.

Believing that there is one or more organizations rigging elections, but which can't be found despite queries and audits, is like believing in Yeti or Aliens.  Simply put, if 99% of the evidence points to one conclusion but you hang onto the 1% that might be inconclusive, you have a problem.

   

Spring Birds

 April is the month that we start to expect Spring weather.  Yes, March can have nice days but once we get past April Fool's Day our expectations rise.  Certainly, the activity of the birds is timely as I imagine nest building is well underway.  Not sure about egg laying but I'm sure appropriate measures are underway.

I keep reading articles about how some birds are expanding their ranges north as the area warms up.  I generally see the same type of birds that I've always seen.  The most exotic are the cardinals who have nested in my backyard since I moved here.  I don't know how long cardinals live so I'm sure these aren't the original ones, but most likely their descendants.  

The most exotic bird was a small parrot that we actually captured one year thinking it was an escaped pet.  We lured it food and it seemed tame.  We never found anyone looking for a lost Parrot, so we adopted Baby and he was part of our family for a number of years.  Apparently, we have parrots now, but they were first noticed in 2013.  We found baby before that, but he has a family resemblance but more colorful.

Baby

Wild

Any Good News IsAttacked

 If you look at anything, pretty much, there will be areas that didn't go perfectly.  Take the Biden Presidency.  His agenda did not get passed in its entirety.  Some of his campaign promises haven't happened at least not yet.  Still, he has a string of accomplishments that far exceed the last occupant.

He has gotten us out of Afghanistan.  Yes, the exit and images on T.V. weren't great but a terrorist attack at any time is messy.  Those images don't change the fact that our involvement in a 20-year war is now over.

The economy is going gangbusters.  That's a significant accomplishment but the downside is that supply can't fully keep up with demand, especially regarding oil.  Sow we have inflation which is likely to ease as supply catches up.  Other items have manufacturing and supply issues as much manufacturing here and abroad have trouble gearing up.  The good news is that jobs are plentiful, and wages are increasing.  In our current culture, every silver cloud has a black lining.  Inflation is indeed transitory, but the transitory period is still with us.  

We have reforged our alliances in Europe and present a United front to the Russian aggression.  It seems to be paying off and while we are not losing soldiers, we do have a bit of an economic cost.  Once again, the success of the Ukrainians is the silver cloud, loss of Russian oil is the black lining.

The passage of the bipartisan infrastructure bill is a monumental accomplishment.  It will have a long beneficial impact on this country.

Immigration is an issue that is not going to be solved.  It is being handled better but as it becomes more desirable here it will increase.  

The Pandemic is not gone but it is mostly contained for now.  We may simply have to live with it, but those who refuse to take precautions will live with a more serious version.  We know how to mitigate the danger, but some won't.  

Voting rights is problematic and the Supreme Court is more radical than it was.  Reforming it is unlikely.

The next election is probably not going to be the solution but it's not too late to rally the base.  Otherwise we may have two years of deadlock.

Party Affiliation

 One of the trends in this country is that party registrations are down while independent registration is up.  This is something of a misleading stat, since generally speaking independents don't have a candidate to vote for.  Maybe they should.

Most States make party affiliation the easiest way to get listed on the ballot.  The requirement to get listed varies but generally it requires petitions signed by a significant number of citizens and meeting filing deadlines. Some states make it easier than others but ultimately the two "major" parties get the top spots on the ballot.

We are living in a time when the differences between the parties seem greater than ever.  Not as much in actual policies as in animosity.  In many areas people are being told how democrats are socialists who kill babies.  This exceeds the argument about abortion.   

As far as policy goes, the Republicans object to the policies that they accuse Democrats of having.  In some cases, some democrats may actually support some of those policies but generally most don't.  Most Democrats are moderate in their views, just like most Republicans.

Still the hatred exists and is fed by rabid media. 

Political Lies

 Some of the things people are willing to believe are simply unbelievable.  In the Ohio Senate race one of the candidates apparently thinks the census reported that more people voted then were registered to vote, thereby proving election fraud.  No such report exists, the census didn't make that claim and the facts show nothing close to that.  Most of the other Republican candidates still support the idea that the last Presential election was stolen, trying to get endorsed.

This is not the most blatant lie currently, although it is close.  The accusations fired at our Supreme Court nominee were mostly based on nothing except a desire to get sound bites.  A certain number of Americans will believe them anyway.

Free Speech is one of our great freedoms but seeing it get abused like this makes you wonder if we need stronger libel and slander laws.  Free Speech protects the speakers right to say what he wants, but does it protect him from answering for his lies?

Reform in this area is unlikely, we have too many impediments to progress.

Lying is very important to some politicians.

Living Throughout History

 I was reding a forum today where a question was asked about the Middle Ages being depressing.  It wasn't except when it was.  This answer applies to all periods and all people everywhere.

Today I woke up made something to eat and considered the weather.  I would like to cut back some dead brush around the property but whether I do not that or not depends on the potential rain and how I feel later.  This is not much different than what people have done throughout history except when they were caught up in larger events.

We look at history and focus on the events that might have changed a monarch or led to a war.  Meanwhile in the thousands of years of our history, once individuals ended up in an agrarian life, it generally was about the same everywhere for everyone except when you were caught up in unusual events.  

People tend to focus on what is normal.  Yes, they might be in the way of invading armies or Viking (fill in the raider of your choice) raids but those were a horrible and rare event.  When they were over people picked up the pieces and went about their life.

Our view of the middle ages or even the dark ages is distorted by events that impacted some people horribly but weren't as much of a factor as we think  

Mostly they got up, did the work that needed to be done and hopefully had an uneventful work filled day.

It's what many aspire to today.

Spring Is a Gift

 My backyard is full of birds much of the year but in the spring I have the most.  Right outside my kitchen window is a tree in bloom that attracts feeding birds.  I'm not sure if they eat the blooms or insects attracted to the blooms but there's enough traffic to suggest the food supply is fairly plentiful and constant.

When you see them up close you can see how they are related to how dinosaurs are depicted.  No one ever actually saw  dinosaur, if you exclude birds.  Still our scientists have rendered depictions and recovered fossils giving us a good idea of what they looked like.

Think about how long life has existed on this planet?  Every year, whatever life was here the solar energy and the soil nutrients provided food for all life here.  It has varied and the food chains have chainged but it still continues to provide,

For much of its history humankind did not exist.  We seem to be trying to eliminate us again.  Take care of the earth and we can last as long as the birds have.  

Or not.

Peasantry Reborn!

 Let's be as clear as possible about the future envisioned by the Republican party, the deserving people have good jobs, nice homes and everyone else works for them and struggles to survive with no backup Government programs.

They may envision multiple levels of need but the image they hold to is that of the London described by Charles Dickens where the poor were forced to work for almost nothing while well off Britons lived well.

They seldom say it out loud although recently Republican Senator Rick Scott published the plans and while he outlines an agenda to tax ordinary Americans and eliminate social programs, he continues to lie about it. 

Even radical right media can read and he can't count of the fact that a majority of Americans don't normally read the news.

Understand that the vast majority of us are relegated in their minds to the "working" classs, fully dependent on our employers.  

It allows the right people to live the good life and we get whatever trickles down.

Progress Will Win

 Change is the one thing we can be certain of.  The world's climate has changed pretty dramatically within human history.  It was the receding of the last Ice age that coincided with the spread of homo sapiens and the decline of Neanderthals. 

Were they related?  Well, it seems like they should be but I don't know if we actually know.  They clearly coexisted for some period of time and while looking back at the history would indicate a fairly quick transition, it still would have lasted a fair number of lifetimes.

During any transition period, you have the new mixing with the old.  The old will inevitably give way to the new but they might try to fight back.  We see that today in America and with some success.  However the wave of change will eventually wash them out of the way and a better more fair America will emerge.

Just might be delayed.

Compete for?

 Winston Churchill reportedly said that Democracy s the worst form of Government except for all the others we have tried.

Democracy, by its definition. serves the will of the majority and leaves the minority unhappy.  Now this is not completely true since even the losers in our form can have significant representation and influence

Our system allows the minority to impede legislation and bring progress to a standstill. The other wasy to look at that is that it doesn't allow reckless proposals to pass.

The most common outcome we suffer through is a reaction to the last winners of dissatisfaction.  This leads to a change in the majority.  This generally doesn't fix the issues.

It has led both parties to focus on winning, which is normal.  However what are they winning?   

Oil Capitalism.

 The price of gas is high dues to a whole lot of factors, but hardly any related to Government policies.  Oil companies got devastated when the pandemic hit as demand dropped along with prices, devaluing the inventory.  Further the oil they were producing cost more to produce then they could sell it for.

Oil company took a hit on their bottom line and their stock price.  While consumers liked the prices that resulted, it wasn't the price that could sustain the oil company profits.

When the pandemic eased and demand shot up there wasn't enough supply, so prices increased. This is basic economics. This should be self-correcting as oil companies increase production but after getting burnt and unwilling to risk more shutdowns the wells lay idle.  What they were already producing was demanding premium prices and starting up more wells wasn't going to help they're bottom line.

It's not price gouging it is simple economics and profit margins.  where more wells would lead to reduce profits on curent supply.  

That's Capitalism!

Alien Life?

 Think about alien life, assuming it exists.  The universe is vast and the planets in our solar system would not support advanced life and probably no life at all.

Once you get out of our solar system, the nearest star is about 4.5 light years away.  While that might sound close, most of us would have trouble really envisioning that distance.  A light year is the distance light can travel in a year.  I suppose a planet could exist in that solar system that supports life but if it does we haven't been able to detect it.  We think there is an earth like planer in that solar system based on measurements but we cant go there and verify it.

The point to be made is that space is so vast that even if life advanced enough to be exploring space exists, it is not going to stumble across us, even if it is trying to detect other life.  We think that we are worth looking only because we still, collectively think we are the center of things.

In science fiction, emphasize the fiction they create various mechanisms to account for this like suspended animation, worm holes or other concepts.  These don't exist and without them we are not visiting other solar systems.  Could they exist?  Well who knows but the ideas are creative but not likely.

What is pretty certain is that we haven't had any visitors just dropping by undetected to examine us.  

Our Precarious Existence

 It's not something we like to think about a lot but our existence, living on a rock in the vast expanse of the Universe, is lucky and easily snuffed out without much warning.  Now the very good news, is that while there are many projectiles in space that could disrupt our existence, space is extremely vast, so we are sort of the needle in a haystack.  Sill while the odds of a major collision is very low, given enough time they are going to happen.  Could be this year, this century, this millennia or several millennia in the future.  They have happened before, just ask the dinosaurs, and they will happen again.  There is very little we can do about it so probably better not to worry.  We do have the ability to see it coming but if we do we ay or may not be able to do something about it.  

Some might put your faith in God who in most of our egocentric religions has a special regard for us.  Despite what some of the people running those organizations claim, God did not write those books, men did.  Were they inspired by God?  Sure, why not, believe whatever you want.  It's a lot like using a QUIJA board.  It spells things out but despite all the denials, it is influence, even if subconsciously by the participants.   

Colonization was Brutal

 There is no doubt that the Americas were colonized by Europeans using brutal methods.  Brutality wasn't uncommon and certainly applying it to natives was considered acceptable.  The Spanish and Portuguese had a head start and when you read about some of their conquests and treatment of the natives, it offends your modern sensibilities.

The great riches stolen by those two powers led to open robbery by pirates and privateers.  There was no real consideration for anything, but profit.

The treatment of African slaves was also brutal and uncaring. Slavery was always brutal, slaves were never volunteers, 

The legacy of slavery in this country lives on because somewhat uniquely using Africans made them and their children distinguishable.  Ancient Rome survived because of the slave for hundreds of years, but once freed they became indistinguishable.

Americans for the most part have come a long way although there is still mor to be done.  We need to stop defining things based on the color of one's skin.  Sometimes I thin that is done more by well meaning people than racists.  If you conider every one a racist, you cna't identify the real ones.

Spring

 Today is the official first day of spring. It is the Spring Equinox. I'm aware that tikis he astronomical first day, some recognise different days.

In the Northern Hemisphere, in the temperate zone, Spring symbolizes rebirth and happy days to come.  Snow has melted in most area,

It is a time to celebrate that we survived the winter and have a chance to replenish,

We should also remember that the Earth is precious and in need of protection.  

First Values

 One value I grew up with is a pretty old one, keep you nose out of other people's business.  It was a good value and generally those who violated it paid a price.  This didn't mean you couldn't be  little nosy or engage in gossip, simply not to interfere unless there was an extraordinary reason.

Clearly, some people were up to no good but getting involved was usually a mistake.  I think this is sort of the essence of city life.  You can certainly try to make things better for everyone by donating or possibly stopping a fight if you could, but getting too involved in individuals' lives was not something you did.

Most of the people I grew up with accepted their neighbors without trying to judge them.  Almost all them became Democrats although over time some changed.  We lived with a diverse group of neighbors, in those days mostly Irish, Italian, Jewish, etc. It didn't matter, although in some ways it did.  

I imagine, if you grew up in a small town, you didn't have this diversity.  I really don't know personally, i grew up in a crowed city. Still based on TV shows and some movies it seems like uniformity was the value there.  Go to the same church, school, work in the local industry, etc.  Being different was not desireable.

The values you learn earliest seem to be the ones that stay with you the longest.  I don't understand how so many Americans think they have the right to control their neighbors.  

They shouldn't.

Poor Attack Strategies

 I find it hard to understand how anyone not under Russia's control could look at the situation in Ukraine and think the nvasion was justified.  I'm not saying Russia has no legitimate position, the expansion of NATO could in their view threaten their security, but the response to that is not an invasion.

The fact that we have some people defending the Russian actions.  If we had a declared war they would be guilty of lending support to the enemy.  What is also clear is that our "loyal" opposition is very opposed to the President getting any credit for dealin with a dnagerous situation and in effect stoppin this dictator, even if only temporarily.

The whole world expected the Russian to role over the Ukrainians.  They didn't and most of the world has united behind the brave resistance being put up.  The actions of our administration has been helpful and the people looking for things to attack are also getting a bit desperate.

The Will of the Majority?

 It's actually pretty simple, let every legal vote count.  What we are seeing are attempts to define "legal" to exclude votes that should count but are not for the "right" candidate.

In a Democracy we have times when we lose elections.  The impact of this really depends on just how different the policies are.  When I was young one major complaint was that the two major parties were basically the same.  This was viewed in a negative way by those trying to change the system.  

The problem now is that the two major parties have irreconcilable differences.  

When we had both parties run by party bosses, they ended up very close on many issues as they tried to win over voters by satisfying the majority of Americans. This didn't appeal to the fringe voters who felt unrepresented.

We now have a system where primaries determine a lot of policies.  Primaries if everyone voted would represent the opinions of the majority.  However, the apathy and lack of interest in primaries has led to radical fringes becoming dominant.

Not at all reflective of the populace in general.  

What was the more democratic system?

Headlines

 One of the things about the world we live in is that information bombards you.  There is so much information that if you try to read a lot of it, you spend your day quickly and get through a small amount.  So, I, and I think most people, scan headlines and pick the topics to read about.

The headlines of topics I don't read still leave an impression, and based on what I do read, probably a misleading one.  For example, there was a headline today about how builder's sentiment dropped drastically because interest rates were up.  The story was accurate I think showing sentiment dropped from over 80 to around 70, the biggest drop in many years.  What sort of hurt the impression from the headline was that anything over 50 was a positive indicator.

So builders went from very, very optimistic to only very optimistic.  Not what the headline implied.

Its hard to find a positive headline because I guess negative headlines grab more attention.  Oil prices have been dropping because the cut off of Russian oil has been low impact.  So right under a headline pointing that out, there was another headline about an analyst for an oil industry monitor saying the cut off of Russian Oil could be the biggest shock to the Oil supply ever experienced.  It had a lot of math about how much Russia exports and yes if it all got cur off, it would be pretty drastic, but the reality is very different.

So the problem is that just scanning headlines, like we pretty much have to do will leave and overall negative picture of what's happening.  That's not accurate.  There are always problems or potential problems but overall things are actually going pretty well.

. 

Benefits Of Technology

 Years ago, I was at a presentation about how technology was going to greatly improve our productivity.  The way that was going to happen was the elimination of many low skill, entry level jobs and of course the people who worked them.

Now this was geared to office work so certainly the people eliminated tended to be those working in typing pools, stenos, data input, etc.  They did have skills, generally typing and maybe stenography.  It all happened.

In general, those jobs no longer exist and for the most part the "professional" staff became responsible for that work. This trend continued and resulted in nearly a 50% reduction in staff.  Since the jobs being eliminated were lower paying, costs didn't go down at the same rate.

This tremendous increase in productivity was equaled in the manufacturing sectors as well.  The benefits of all these savings did result in some lower costs to the consumer but a lot of it led to the wealth inequality we now see.  

Technology should have benefitted everybody, and to some extent it did.  It just did do so equally.

Freedom Improving?

 Is the world becoming a better place over time?  I guess first you have to decide what better is/ Some people, and maybe the majority, aren't looking to change things.  If you believe that we are part of God's pan and men should toil and women should bear children, many changes are unwelcome.

On the other hand, if you believe each individual should be allowed to be their best person then change is needed.  

It's hard to judge the world as a whole.  In fairly progressive counties we have seen an expansion of certain freedoms followed by a negative reaction.  Each country has its own challenges.  Much of the middle east is reverting to fundamentalism.  This is generally not good news for non-traditional lifestyles.

Clearly some of the progress made is still sticking at least for now.  

Finding Blame

 We like to place blame for things.  There often isn't any real reason too, but it makes us feel better.

Did chamberlain enable Hitler at Munich?  Maybe he did, but had he rejected the deal would things have gone differently?  Who is responsible for inflation or high gas prices, Biden?  Almost definitely not but it plays well with the right wing of this country.

On the other hand people also like to attribute big things to odd causes.  Do butterflies flapping their wings lead to tornados.  

We waste a lot of time and effort to determine causes and fault when by that time it already happened.  In the military the debriefing relates to avoiding the same problem in the future.  It can work, but that depends.  The British Navy during the age of sail only engaged when the wind was favorable to them.  This seems like a policy all the Navies would have followed but I guess they did it better.

Sometimes the inquiry is to punish the offenders.  Some are designed to discredit the innocent.

Sometimes they accomplish nothing at all.

Innocents Dying in Ukraine

 The main thing I know about the war in Ukraine is that innocent people are dying because of it.  I don't mean to imply that the soldiers dying are guilty of anything, although they may be, but the expanding shelling is causing death to people who had no part in this.

The other thing I know is that the Russians are in Ukraine, not the other way around.  Now of course in war one army is normally in foreign space.  There was and is no indicator that Ukraine was doing anything to hurt Russia, except to act independently.  I can see how trying to join NATO could be viewed by a paranoid Dictator as a provocation.  We adhere to the principles of the Monroe Doctrine which is in all honesty a presumptuous policy that is only enforceable if we are stronger than those violating it. 

It was in effect a statement of support for the ex-Spanish colonies.  

Russia under Putin wants to recreate the Soviet Union.  It won't happen and in fact he may have doomed his regime.  

Will Russians except the consequences of the sanctions?  

We will see.

Ukraine Escalation?

 Russia under Putin seems to be escalating the war.  They are becoming more brutal and attacking more cities.  While it seems unlikely that Ukraine can withstand an al out assault, they do have some advantages.

The vast majority of the population seems to be opposed to Russian occupation.  I think Putin thought that they might welcome it since they had been part of the USSR.  I gather they don't remember it the same way he does.

I'm also not sure if he has as much support at home as he thinks he does.  I don't know if he has managed to recreate the days of Stalin and the suppression of his own population.  

While Russia seems to have the military firepower, they are fighting a country with a resistant population.  How much destruction is he willing to do?

Inflation Still High

 Inflation measured against a year ago continues to be high, reaching levels last seen 40 years ago.  Clearly energy was a big contributor   Food also was higher, but we saw some indications that supply chain issues are easing.

We are reaching a period where last year we saw significant month over month increases.  As the historical pace of inflation increased, the year over year increase measured today will get smaller.  Theat might be deceptive as the factors influencing current inflation are unchanged.

We are seeing the increased impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine  

It adds risk and risk results in more volatility as people seek less risky investments.

Oil Production

 It might be important to point out that at this time there is no shortage of oil or refined oil products.  Wat drives the price of oil on the futures market is speculation over the future supply and demand.  

When the pandemic hit and shutdowns were imposed worldwide the price of oil plummeted which was good for gas prices but bad for the suppliers who lost billions.  This led to a change in operations which led to a reduction in risk calculations.

Drilling was reduced to more sure fire projects and wells that were not profitable enough were shut down.  So when the economy started to boom oil supply could not increase quickly enough.

This resulted in a jump in price to about pre-pandemic levels.  This was not related to Government policies but to private company business decisions.  Yes the administration cancelled a pipeline that was controversial, but that did not eliminate the Canadian oil just a cheap way to transport it.

The loss of Russian oil impacts the risk equation and supply forecast.  Will the supply increase?  Yes, but slower because of risk uncertainty.  There are other sources of supply that worry drillers so they will not overinvest.

Oil prices will stabalize, it will take a minute or two.

Thoughts

 In many ways the American voter, and all others probably, are fairly simplistic.  If things get better they re-elect the incumbents, and vice versa.

There is a lot of good news but the overriding issue is the dramatic increase in gasoline prices.  The reasons for the increase are complex but the Russian attack on the Ukraine has driven the price of oil up.  

What you saw was a steep drop in demand during the pandemic followed by a robust increase as the recovery took hold and not an abrupt jump due to the Ukraine situation.

Biden's not running for re-election until 2024.  If we saddle him win with an unfriendly congress. It will be a period of little progress.

Real Intelligence?

 I tend to have limited exposure to the current breed of conspiracy theorists, partly on purpose but every so often it happens.  The question is how do people we consider intelligent spout some of the stupidest things?

Maybe it says more about us than about them.   It makes me think of how you try to promote people with perspective, not just people who work hard.

When you interview candidates there is an interaction that usually leads you to the best candidate.  When you ask five people an interview question that requires some thought, the answers will range from the bland to the interesting.  What you are looking for, or at least what I was looking for, is an answer that makes you think by providing a new, valid perspective.  

I'm not talking about purely mechanical positions, promotions usually put people in leadership roles.  Some people ae clearly not ready for that, people who often seem capable and intelligent.  

What you realize is that many candidates don't possess any real critical thinking tools.  They want to be told what to believe and exactly what you want them to do.  They are intelligent enough to "pass" but they are easily swayed.  They don't understand why they don't get selected and if you discuss it with them they tend to argue they got the answers right.  There were no right answers really.  

They need alternate explanations for their failures and are ready for someone who explains it all, no matter how crazy the answers are.  

So are they intelligent?  Not on the level that really matters, but they can do certain things.  

Fix the Police

 Sometimes a protest is clearly worth having, although the way the protest played out might be problematic.  Last year, after some atrocious deaths of unarmed black men, we had the Back Lives matter protests demanding justice for out black citizens.

The protests were widespread but persisted in some areas longer than in others.  Some seemed t take advantage of the protests to cause property damage and loot.  

That is inexcusable but the great majority of protesters were peaceful looking for justice.  Whatever you think about racism in America there is enough of it to make those protests right wing attack points.  Some of the organizers came up with a slogan about defunding the police.  

It's a terrible slogan since we absolutely need police.  A better one would have been Fix The Police, which is clearly what is needed.  Not all police are bad and not all victims are innocent. What seems to have gone wrong is that the police in many areas adopted self preservation as a goal when the only goal they should have is protect the populace.

If you know police you are likely to have heard stories about the danger they face. These are real but the answer isn't to make it just as dangerous, or more so, for innocent unarmed black men.  

Yes they account for a lot of crime as a group but each one needs the protection of the law, which is represented by the police.  What reforms are need to recue those risks is a matter of debate.

Protecting the populace isn't.

State of the Union Speech

 At some point we have decided the State of the Union speech is political in nature and not a report to congress assembled.  Essentially the report, mandated by law is similar to a CEO providing his board of directors and his shareholders a status report.

The idea that we allow a formal rebuttal strikes me as absurd and I don't watch them.  There is plenty of opportunity after the report to raise questions and challenge factual statements.  It just seems to me that our chief executive should be allowed to make his report without the appearance of a second government.

We live in an era when politics has become more important than actual issues.   Each congressman and senator are supposed to be an independent representative of his district or State. When they simply vote along party lines on most issues it's hard to believe they are.

I'm also a bit tired of the media, except generally the right-wing media, acting like both sides engage in similar behavior.  Take the outburst that interrupted the speech trying to accuse the President of putting the Marines in Afghanistan in danger.  They are always in danger when deployed and while the incident at the airport was a bit of a fiasco, the commanders in the field set up the scenario.  What the President did was get us out of an expensive and costly (in lives lost) war.  No marines are currently in danger in Afghanistan.  

Job well done.

Economic News

 We continue to generate lots of jobs and see productivity and wages growing.  Yes, oil is way up but we see events causing that.

There has been some increase in food prices, but with an exception for specific events, I haven't seen dramatic increases.  I see people post things on-line that sound disastrous but if they are experiencing 100% increases in the cost of food, I don't know why.

I actually think I have seen some prices coming down, at least the sale items.

What we know is that labor is getting wage increases.  That will have an impact of the cost of many things.  Oil is used to transport many items and that increase is going to be paid. 

I would prefer that prices stay low but these increases were almost inevitable as the economy roared back.

For those seeing these tremendous increases, it is possible that the local merchants are taking advantage of the situation.  

Sacrifice?

 One of the consequences of the invasion of Ukraine by the Russians has been a disruption to the oil supply and increased prices.  It adds to inflation and hits our pocketbooks but it's nothing like the disaster hitting the Ukrainian people and the Russian soldiers sent on the invasion.

I imagine Putin expected a quick victory, followed by installing a friendly regime and a celebration about how he pushed NATO off his doorstep.  That's not what he got.

The Ukrainian people are showing the world their desire to be free and democratic.  Whatever happens going forward they deserve a lot of credit.

We Americans will continue to complain about gas prices.  We could also use more fuel-efficient vehicles but that would apparently be too much of an imposition.

Progress

 Reports out of Ukraine indicate that many of the Russian troops don't want to be there and have surrendered in units and potentially sabotaged some of their equipment.  I think Putin is going to keep raising the stakes if there isn't a safe (for him) path out.

He never expected the West to unite and impose such serious sanctions on him and Russia.  His economy is in real trouble and his "allies" are dwindling.  No one, including his own people bought his propaganda and in today's age of communication, you can't really continue to lie to the people.

You can keep lying but your lies will only be accepted by you loyal followers and after a while not even them.  

In last night's State of the Union we saw positive and truthful messaging promising a brighter future for America. Not that things are that bad now, we have a booming economy, plenty of jobs, increasing wages and a virus that seems under control for the most part.  Yes there is inflation and oil and gas are expensive, but steps are being taken to solve those problems.  We even have an administration attacking Climate Change and attempting sensible border control and crime control.

Providing the police, the resources to do their job the right way is the best solution.  

Let's figure out how to work together and not fight for no reason.

Doubling Down

 Unfortunately, Putin, like most Dictators will double down on his attempts overrun the Ukraine.  Whether he wil be able to do that is probably likely but not certain.  What is pretty certain is that it will result in more deaths to fulfil his ego.

No matter the outcome he has already lost a lot, in his prestige, his economy and his ability to maintain control.  Hardly the genius he presents he fell into a trap that has consumed many before him, overconfidence.  

Soe of the biggest examples involved invasions of Russia, not invasions by Russia.  He is now engaged in the quagmire of invasion and occupation while the sanctions imposed are ruining his economy.

The deaths he is causing is his sin.

They will catch up with him.

Press Led Putin On

 You can tell that Putin is getting a bit desperate when he rattles the nuclear threat.  While he ordered in public his military to put his nukes in ready status, whatever that actually means (aren't they more or less ready all the time?) he is trying to intimidate the West.

With his puppet out of the White House, he might be led on by the somewhat traitorous depiction of how weak Biden is on radical right-wing media.  First, he is clearly not as depicted and while no one is hoping for a nuclear exchange, he and everyone of his generation learned the lesson of appeasement.

We are not sending in troops but we have imposed sanctions that are clearly hurting.  Maybe he was fooled by all the coverage of how Americans are incensed by the inflation and increase in gas prices.  I would prefer that gas be cheaper but not a repeat of the economic slowdown we had because of the pandemic.

Putin lives in a country without a free press, and he probably doesn't understand one when he sees it.  The negative reporting is what we do.

It doesn't impact our resolve.

Victory?

 While the invasion of the Ukraine is still in its early stages, I think Putin was hoping for a quick collapse either because he delusionally thought the Ukrainians would welcome the Russians or the wouldn't put up much of a fight.

He appears to have miscalculated.  He probably also thought the west would talk but not act.  Instead, they are imposing tough sanctions and lending support.  

One of the possible outcomes is regime change, which Putin wanted, but not for Russia.  Will it get that far?  This was the equivalent of gong all in on a poker hand and either you win or you lose big.

While technically he can still "win" it seems like at best it will be a pyrrhic victory where the cost outweighs the gains.

Democracy Is Hard

 In all honesty, much of what you see presented in the media is not objective.  Currently we seem to be on a media train where bashing Biden for (fill in the blank) is popular.  I saw a preview for a local channel where a show representing some black views was previewed and the panel was asked if Biden had failed to keep his promises?  

The problem with that question is that it pretends he can do more than try to deliver on his promises.  Politicians do overpromise when they run for office generally.  Most of the time they should add an "I'll try to " to each promise.  Since legislation in this country requires legislation which is not solely under a single person's control the most you can hope for is attempts.

Take voting rights.  There is no question that Biden and his fellow Democrats have tried to pass voting rights legislation.  Partly because of Senate rules they have failed, at least so far.  In fact, clearly voting rights is under attack in much of the country.  The question you have to ask yourself is do you think the other party is better?

Right now, the odds are that the Democrats will take some hits in the mid-terms.  It might change but if the polls are close to accurate and if historical trends hold it could be bad.  

It won't be good for the progressive agenda if it happens.

It's been a winning strategy, getting people to stay home because of unkept promises.  

Patriotism?

 If you understand how dangerous a war in the Ukraine is and the risk of further Russian aggression if this one is not stopped or at least punished, you shouldn't encourage dictators to continue by expressing what are best characterized as providing aid and support to the aggressor.

We have not declared war and hopefully won't have to, but his aggression has ominous possibilities.

We saw the aggressive Putin warn about historic consequences if any Western country helped Ukraine.

Nobody wants to go to war but that attitude is dangerous and looking at 1939 and another aggressive dictator should give us pause.

We have free speech, but the voters need to note who stands for Democracy and international law and who supports aggressive dictators.

Invasion

 We now know that Biden was right, and Putin had made up his mind to invade.  He clearly would like a quick victory after which he can try to do damage control and try to consolidate whatever gains he can secure.  If it stalls or drags on, it will be a serious hit to his economy.

It has certain repercussions to the rest of the world, mainly in regard to energy.  The sanctions being imposed will also have some impact to others as certain trade will be interrupted leading to some price increases.  General uncertainty will also impact stock prices for a bit.

Whatever the outcome the real danger is whether we are looking at an expansionist dictator in charge of one of a large European power.  Russia is no longer what it was as the USSR and Putin may be trying to recreate that.  He probably can't but that doesn't mean he can't try.

The best outcome would be the one that minimizes human suffering.   

Priorities

 There was a question raised at the daily press briefings about whether the issues in Ukraine replaced Climate Change as the greatest issue facing us.  The response was it didn't and that is the right answer.

It's still unclear as to what is going to happen in the Ukraine, it is possible that the Russians will decide to take over and engage in terrible brutality. That would be a horrible thing, but we have seen that before in other parts of the world.  What we have never seen is the type of worldwide disasters that climate change will unleash.

Hopefully, the sanctions and worldwide condemnation will result in a solution that everyone can live with.  It won't be a perfect one, it never is.  People have already been displaced or killed over the issue.  Still, it is not too late for a negotiated settlement of some sort.  

No one wants to see a world war break out over the Ukraine and it isn't likely.  To some Americans, gas prices going up is almost as bad.

It isn't.

Cultural Appropration?

 I was watching an interview with the new Maria of West Side Story a very talented young lady who got her big break.  From what I could tell she shuld be a success and the remake should do well.  It might not and if not, her future could be uncertain.

During the interview her background was brought up and compared to the unenlightened first movie where Maria was played by a non-Latina.  Natalie Wood played the part well and when she got the part cultural appropriation was not a thing.

Now there are two potential approaches to things.  The first one says to hire the best person without regard to nationality, sex, race or anything except talent.  As good as that sounds, you have to realize that many of these decisions are too close to call.  Take the current Supreme Court opening.  Who is the best candidate in the United States?  No one can identify someone who fits that bill.  Ignoring the politics for a bit, Our top candidates are all very close in experience, education and ability.  So, in that case, other factors will dominate.  Certainly, known legal positions are important to add a liberal to the court.  The President has committed to picking a Black Women and some argue that is restrictive.  It really isn't.  Qualified candidates are available in all variations and a Black Women is certainly due a chance.

Acting is different and while auditions can be helpful is discriminating the best candidates, if we restrict the selections to only the right criteria aren't we ignoring merit?  I see historical dramas where minorities play important parts when they wouldn't have if we stuck with the culturally appropriate actor.

I'd rather see them use their skills.

Media Shock

 A free press is a wonderful thing most of the time.  There are times when it stops negotiations by finding and releasing too much detail about the positions but then again, some use it to negotiate.  Realistically in this country and maybe the world, shock sells.

The worse things are the better the ratings.  We saw it in radio and in podcasts where being edgy and worse got good ratings.  As cable TV expanded it went from a medium with lots of boring stations to a medium with those but also stations that used an old model of attractive women telling us shocking things about, well everything.  

Much of this can be attributed to our Australian imports who learned their trade in Australia and then in Britain before importing it here.  I'm not aware if they have expanded into foreign non-English markets, I imagine they have, but the strategy made them exceedingly rich.

It's not dissimilar to the yellow journalism of the 19th century which led to what now seem like more restrained times.  The Spanish American war might have been one outcome of their methods.

The public has to be able to discern the truth and unfortunately our public seems a bit underprepared. 

Still, truth exists, and someone should figure it out.

Lies

 Based on the reports it looks like Russia is going to invade the Ukraine any time now.  They are apparently creating false events to convince their own people that the invasion was justified, similar to what the Nazis did before invading Poland.  It didn't convince anyone except Nazi followers in Germany.

Still, what we do know is that repeating a lie often enough works.  Despite all the evidence we see people will just believe a lie repeated often enough.  People who seem to be intelligent fall for that tactic.

Shows how little we still understand about the human psyche.  

So we will watch the invasion and know that Putin is lying about the reasons it started.  We should apply that lesson in this country.

Party Image

 If you consider the overall state of the nation, it is pretty good.  Wages are up, employment is high, spending is up.  We are not out of the 20 year long war in Afghanistan.  There are some areas of concern.  Inflation is high and as the world economy has picked up we see supply chain issue.  Similarly, the oil companies have been reluctant to reopen marginal wells leading to a spike is oil prices.

What is somewhat different is that we still have the last President making absurd accusations and much of the Republican party has fallen in line.  They seem to have a better coordinated game plan originally orchestrated by the Koch brothers which was to take over from the bottom up.  They have focused on winning state legislatures which enable them to control the congressional redistricting.

This has led to a situation where they are almost guaranteed control of quite a few states.  The Democrats tended to work top down which is higher visibility but not as effective.  

It is time to consider winning back some state legislatures if we want to fix redistricting and other issues at that level. 

Democrats have allowed Republicans to define many of the issues.  If you are branded as the party trying to defund the police, you are in trouble.

Acting or Stupid?

 I find it hard to believe that anyone takes anything Donald Trump says seriously.  Outside of being an egomaniac, I never considered him stupid or crazy so when he takes on that persona, like he has, I think he must be playing a role.  

He has found rabid supporters who take him seriously.  He found them when he joined the birther movement which I'm sure he knew was ridiculous, but he found a large group of people who actually believed it.  That was enough to dominate the primaries, which really isn't that hard, and he simply appealed to outliers willing to support him for a mention.

He now seems so far down the rabbit hole that he might actually believe he has enough suport to win.

Of course, he seems to know that he can't win without electoral shenanigans, so they are trying to manipulate the elections in certain states.

Will Americans fall for this?  I don't think so but famously they tend to surprise me with poor choices so maybe.  

We would have no one to blame but ourselves if we let him fool us again.

No News Here!

My first encounter with a "rabid" Fox news listener happened years ago when we had house guests who we had known a long time.  After dinner he got a big smile on his face and said let's see what Fox is up to now.  I never watched the cable news channel, so I put on the local news on the Fox channel.  This wasn't what he wanted, he wanted to see them spin lies about the shenanigans they said were going on.  I didn't know what channel they were on and he decided to give up his nightly viewing.

What was odd to me was he had the same sort of fervor as someone asking to see sporting events or a real popular TV show, not a news channel.  Over the years I realized Fox news had little to do with real news.  I would sometimes see them on the airport monitors and sometimes during breakfast at a hotel.

It turns out that the real feeding frenzy mostly takes place at night.  It also seems like they have strayed further and further afoot.  

It's worked for them as they did draw an audience.  An audience gets you sponsors, and sponsors pay the bills no integrity required.  I still don't watch the channel but over the years the one incident that seemed like they stood for integrity was when they were the first to call Arizona for Biden.  I doubt they will make a mistake like that again.

Their recipe is pretty simple.  Finc some raw meat, throw it to the audience with a backstory made up out of whole cloth and fabricate a bunch of lies om support of radical right-wing propaganda.

It works for them but I do think that Americans will realize how wrong they usually are.  

Slow Moving Disaster

 It is probably too late to avoid major impacts of climate change. It is getting less likely all the time since no one is taking the type of dramatic action that would be necessary.

In the scheme of things from a planetary point of view, this is a minor event.  From a human point of view, it's pretty major.  

While those living on islands or near the coast may be the most impacted in the short term, we are all seeing the intensity of storms increasing.  More carbon dioxide is good for plants and they like the warmer temperatures also so if water becomes available we may see deserts bloom.

Maybe not.

While the impacts of climate change qualify as a disaster for many, except for the storm victims it is a slow moving one.  Rising water will make certain areas uninhabitable and billions or even trillions of dollars of property will be destroyed.

Just taking awhile.

Cuba and Ukraine, Similar?

 Is Russia going to invade the Ukraine?  That's uncertain but this has some comparisons to how we objected to the Russian presence in Cuba in the 60s.

I don't think most Americans are even that aware of the issue inciting these events.  Ukraine wants to join NATO and NATO is considering it.  Russia views NATO 9with some justification) as an anti-Russian alliance.  This amounts to having a semi-hostile alliance on its southern border.

NATO has been growing since the end of the USSR and the fall of the Eastern Bloc.  In many ways it shouldn't matter since it is supposedly a defensive alliance.  However NATO has evolved and while to us it seems defensive, would we feel the same way if a powerful anti-American Alliance took hold in say Mexico?

We saw our reaction to defensive missiles in CUBA which almost led t war.

Hopefully this can be resolved diplomatically, but Ukraine joining NATO is probably a bad idea.  

Superbowl Thoughts

 Refs being people will make mistakes.  The worst mistake in the Super Bowl was the missed offensive pass interference call which allowed a touchdown.  Some might disagree about the calls near the end of the game, but I think they all were justified.  If your argument is that they weren't calling those penalties earlier in the game, so what?  If they see it, they have to call it.

Congrats to the L.A. Rams for a gritty drive at the end and a defensive stand to wrap it up.

Need to remember that as much as a public spectacle the game has become it is after all still a game played by humans and crap happens.

It is probably just me but I was totally unimpressed by the halftime show.  Was there a theme to it and why was there a platform resembling a city street sort of?

I actually like all the performers who performed at least somewhat but it seemed pretty haphazard.

Guess I'm just old.

Commercials were OK.  It's hard to win the gold every year.

Privacy?

 I don't remember who said it but there is a quote about American consumers that comes to mind about how no one ever went broke underestimating the public.

The scams aren't restricted to things like 3 card monte or the shell game, they permeate society and I think they always did.  Of course, in this age they pop up as you do things on-line and it's almost like they have been listening in on your conversations.  They would if they could and maybe those devices on your phone or in your house are listening, they respond if you say their name so at least somewhat, 

You are being data mined all the time and it's hard to avoid.  It's not new, just more and more pervsive.

Before the internet it was a bit harder, like how pickpockets liked to watch people as they passed signs warning them to safeguard their valuables.  A normal reaction might disclose where those valuables were.

Now of course they know what we do, what we like and what we suffer from.

Some consider this an invasion of privacy, and it very well might be.  

However targeted marketing is not new, just a little more personal.

Sports

 Over the years we have turned Super Bowl Sunday into a sort of holiday with the build-up.  It's not a real holiday but that might just be because it falls on a Sunday.

At some point in our history and that of Western Europe we found time for recreation and sports.  It's not like humans haven't celebrated certain events but if you consider the world of the 18th or 19th century, survival was paramount.  The industrial revolution changed the way we lived and allowed people who had previously been peasants the opportunity to make money of their own.

The early days were still, by our standards, rough with everyone having to pitch in and help the family.  Child labor was normal on farms and continued until someone decided that it was unacceptable.  The fight for working mens rights was long and hard and progressed via unions and socialites who were trying to save them.

It is almost true every year, but the average person lives longer and better than the past.  They may feel things used to be better but if you measure it they are on average wrong.  The good old days were just not as good as we imagine, even if you were in the Gilded Class.  

I realize we have a holiday to celebrate the things we should give Thanks for but maybe the Superbowl is another opportunity to reflect how we have the freedom to watch with most of the country, grown men engaged in a game that is only important because we let it be.

Official Records?

 It's interesting to see all of those outraged that Hillary Clinton, as Secretary of State, maintained a personnel e-mail server.  It might have cost her the election which led to us having a President who felt he could get away with anything and actually tried.

Keeping official records is clearly important but we have expanded that to include all documents.  Trump clearly has never cared about the rules of Government and tried to incite an insurrection to stay in office.  He got an insurrection, but it didn't lead the nation to demand he stay.

Throughout History certain people have beleived they only needed to inspire the people and they would rise up.  John Brown believed he would incite a slave uprising when he seized Harper' Ferry.  It didn't happen, 

Sometimes it does but you need a charismatic leader truly beloved by at least some of the people Trump isn't really a leader, much more of a follower who used Twitter to gather a following.He was a multiple failure as a businessman who picked up on some conspiracy theories on late night internet and lent some fame to things like the birther movement.

He is comfortable telling his rallies what they want to hear while in reality he has contempt for them

Just a lucky opportunist.

Inflation Thoughts

 How bad is inflation.  Well, it clearly depends.  If you are not moving or buying a car it is probably not that bad.  Energy costs are up and there is a built-in amount that we will have to live with from our economic boon but even in the worst categories like meat it depends a lot on how you spend your money.

Clearly it hurts certain people much more than others.  Fixed income people without COLAs feel the worst pinch. from higher prices but unless they plan to move its not terrible.  

In fact, homeowners have been significant beneficiaries of the increase in housing prices, building equity or profit.  

I'm not saying that paying more for a pound of hamburger isn't annoying, but it's not normally catastrophic.  When it is the problem is bigger than inflation.

Prices are not likely to come down, but these inflation numbers are measured year over year, so inflation started increasing about a year ago.  If last year's price increases exceed this year's, the rate of increase will look better.  It won't mean you are paying less.

In some ways more expensive energy and red meat could be a good thing for saving the planet and our health.  We seem to need some incentives.

Representing People, not Land

 We're probably not going to fix it anytime soon, but a lot of our senator represent land and not people.

The idea that the low population but generally big area states get the same number of senators as high population states is just an inequity that leads to a generally skewed Senate.  

There are a lot of fairly easy corrections but the best one would address the issue of State sovereignty.  

The colonies had varied origin stories and after the Constitution not so much.  The Midwest and west were settled as part of the Westwood migration or the gold and silver rushes.  Expansion was popular and once a territory got the necessary paperwork for a petition to congress statehood was usually granted.  

Before the Civil War there was an attempt to keep the number of slave and free states equal in number but aft not an issue.

Democracies are supposed to represent the people more or less equally but if you live in Vermont or Wyoming, you are represented in the Senate and the electoral college much better than someone in California or Texas.

Racism On the Supreme Court

 So, Alabama can draw districts that reduce the impact of Black voters, and the Supreme Court lets it stand because they don't want to disrupt the mid-terms?  These districts have never been used in an election and you might wonder why throwing them out would be disruptive?  Alabama seems fine with confusing its Black voters if it keeps them from voting.

The racism is starting to show on the Supreme Court.  It has been racist for much of its history but many people including myself thought those days were behind us.  Apparently not.  The idea that they will hear this case on its merits so they don't need to protect Black voters this time is as logical as saying a few hangings will be found to be illegal eventually.

In the world there are two types of decisions.  The best are ones that are actually based on facts and evidence where the conclusion is the logical end result.  The second type is where the outcome is determined and then you look for ways to support it.  In our adversary system the two parties use the second method since they are representing parties.  

The Court here accepted Alabama's arguments even if they were specious because it was what they wanted the outcome to be.

How do you fix racism on the Court?  It will take time but first don't elect racists to Government.  Unfortunately, this racist decision and the ones that will follow will allow racists to get elected.  

It is self-perpetuating.

Politics or Anarchy?

 So if the January 6th insurrection was normal political discourse, we must be living in a Lewis Carroll world after all.  We all saw the events on TV either live or on the news and while I agree that what we saw wasn't everything, it was enough to show the contempt these people had for our Constitution and political system.

Maybe what is sadder is that so many Americans will simply support these anarchists with their votes because they have taken control of their party.  Because of our primary system the parties have both fallen victim to angry activists as opposed to the moderate majority.

Political parties need to fix the system that allows for activists to takeover using the primary system.  It really is too easy now and it leads to non-representational Government.

Agendas?

 We like to talk about agendas in this country.  Biden's Agenda, Democratic Agena, Republican Agenda, Feminist Agenda, etc, etc.

We also like to act like they are an all or nothing situation.  In the last few months, I have read how Biden's Agenda is in trouble, dead, revised, dead again, revised again, etc etc.

It is also unclear to the media if the agenda is a radical leftist one or the moderate one, he seemed t run on.

Meanwhile the only Republican agenda seems to be to continue to pretend the last election isn't over.

It is.

I suppose they are also attempting to keep this country a white racist one with evangelical values and a prohibition on abortion.

They don't publicize it quite like that but it's not hard to figure out.

Economic News

 Based on reports the economy grew at the fastest rate in about 40 years similar in fact to inflation.  Inflation gets most of the headlines because negative press sells better.

Maybe it's just me but where there is good news on the economy the story always has a "but". For example, gas prices decline BUT are expected to rise again.  Undoubtedly true but they are also expected to decline again at some point.

When I shop I don't realy notice that prices are significantly higher than what I remember.  Ground beef, something I but a lot does vary in price but not by so much as to be catastrophic.  It is now listed in many varieties by fat content, grass fed or not, angus or not and of course now the meatless variety.  I generally got it in family size packages for between $4 and 5$ a pound, and it still seems to be in that range if on the high end.  

Some things are also a lot cheaper, but my point isn't that inflation doesn't exist, just that it is easily managed.  Items like new cars or houses is a whole different category if you ask me.

Meanwhile average household income has increased significantly.  In fac these are the economic headlines on CNBC today.

    Long Term Unemployment tumbles in January

    How the Biden Administration misread the inflation threat

    Black Unemployment rate drops workforce participation rises in January

   Weekly jobless claims total 238,000, fewer than expected

Those are the current headlines, right below them were the ones from Wednesday and included.

    All signs are pointing to a rough January jobs report on Friday.

Signs were wrong!

 

Elections?

 There is no particular reason we only have two parties in this country except for the collusion by the two of them to assure it.  In pretty much every state, you see policies and practices that support a two-party system and make it hard fora third party to have any real influence.

Realistically we could have a Progressive Party, a Liberal Party, a Conservative Party, an Evangelical Party and probably a few others.  Would that be better?  Depends.  

In countries with parliamentary systems, you have alliances between parties. Generally, one party wins a plurality and makes deals to create a government.  So if you only issue is abortion restrictions, you negotiate tradeoffs with the parties that will support your issue.  In return you support the main agenda.

Currently we see similar maneuvers in our two parties but it extends down to the primary level where most voters are faced with less choice.  In fact the big issue in today's politics is often the primary since so many districts are engineered to assure one of the parties will win it. After taht the actual election is not in doubt frequently..     

Saving the Planet

 Last year we did not reach our carbon emissions reduction goal.  Instead, we saw emissions imcrease by about 7%.  It should be noted that the 7% increase is after the significant reductions related to the pandemic in 2020 so we are still down about 4% from 2019.

While we made commitments at Glasgow, our odds of meeting them grow dimmer as we increase our emissions.  In addition, significant climate emissions were built into the Build Back Better initiative which is stalled.  Without incentives and tax breaks our odds of making progress diminish.

Failure to make progress is not a victory for anybody.  In addition to sea level rise, the planet will react with more and more violent storms.  

Losing the climate battle will be devastating for the world and us.  Will we adjust?  I imagine so, but similar to many things the pain increases the longer we delay.

Saving the Planet should be our number one priority.

Tax Time

 Its February so I downloaded my tax software last night.  I don't have to download it but I still don't feel that having all my data on the cloud is safe.  I'll probably start them this week although I did transfer last year's info into the new year, so I guess that a start.

I keep pretty good records but my info is not well organized, so a lot of time is spent looking for documents I know I have in the big file cabinet next to my desk.  I could file things better but I would have to deal with the stuff I already didn't file so it is hardly worth it.

I could have someone do my taxes, but I've been doing them so long it would seem like giving up.  Plus, in some areas the actual truth is unknowable, like the value of the weekly donations my wife makes to goodwill.  She simply uses the drop off boxes so not receipt and no real record of what it was.  Just clothes and stuff bought some time ago that she now considers unwanted.  My valuation method is a secret.

The biggest change in recent years was the loss of the SALT deductions I used to get.  It turned me from someone getting a refund to someone paying.  I still get to pay the state and local taxes as well.

With taxes it's better to pay than to receive at the end, you had the use of the money, but getting is just more pleasant.

Is This The Future Yet?

 Growing up and reading science fiction, I had high hopes for the future, thinking that humanity would be reaching the stars and setting up colonies.  Well, we have some amazing technological advances (mastered that Dick Tracy watch) but not much progress on the Flash Gordon side.

The reality of science is not able to keep up with the imaginations of men.  I wonder if I was transported from the 50s to today if I would have trouble adjusting?  I guess the portable computers we carry around and as I said the handheld communication devices (same thing) would be different bu not shocking.

We still drive cars and I while some are electric or self-driving, I think I would be able to mansge, although self-service would be new.  I guess a self-driving car could get gas without much human intervention.

When I started working, we had typewriters and people paid to use them.  Now we have less workers and smart computers pointing out errors.

What is definitely different is our politicians.  Even considering tricky Dick Nixon, we never expected them to be this oblivious to public opinion.  We also never expected public opinion to be so odd.

Unfortunately, the racism is still around if not as blatant.  It seems our belief the racists were changing was simply the fact that they went underground and developed new tactics.  

Russia is still dangerous as is China.  

Maybe I'm missing some wonderful things, we have a lot of Apps we didn't have or need back then.

We somehow managed to get dates, rent apartments, get delivery and taxis without them.

Imagine that.

Celebrity

 If you consider some of the people who have become celebrities both now and, in the past, the characteristic that made them famous is much like an idiot savant.  For example, take charles Lindberg who famously wa the first to solo over the Atlantic.  The fame that came with this event was extraordinary and potentially led to the tragic death of his son.  However, it did not qualify him as a political candidate and in fact he had some odd views.

Celebrities are a bit like the student who makes a scene in the classroom, and everyone then knows who they are.  Most of us don't crave attention enough to make a spectacle of ourselves but some do.  Everyone is entitled to have an opinion, after all they are free, but they resemble assholes in that way.

Some might say I'm psting opinions here, and they would be right, but when I started doing this I did it more as a journal where I consider events and jot down my thoughts.

I have opinions and I didn't pay for them so I can offer them up now if anyone is interested.

They are of course free if you want to use any.

We have to control Climate Change We are like the people of Ponpei wondering if the Volcano was a problem.

We need to respect all people and guarantee they have the freedoms we have.  I didn't say like or love, but understand we are all equal.  It was common at on time to hear people (white) ask each other what do those people (Black) want?  Well, the question reveals the problem, they should have the same things as everyone else.

Immigrants have always been good for this country and that hasn't changed.  

Freedom to act is absolute until you impact other people.  Free speech doesn't cover yelling fire in a crowded movie theatre. Some of the stuff in social media comes under that.

Neighbors

 Politics has become a way of life in some respects but not in what I consider the real heart of this country where ordinary people simply try to live their lives and raise their families as best they can.  

Each family is different but when a single event like a blizzard impacts all of them you get to see the real America.  Helping each other out, not worrying about who they voted for or whom they might vote for, is what a neighborhood looks like.

A power outage is a real problem that needs to be dealt with while the Supreme Court is almost an abstraction.  Our system requires them to exist, but they should generally be hearing complex case of law, not creating problems.

It's always been true that Americans deal with problems and help each other.  It's a large part of our history.  With a few exceptions someone who moves in is rapidly incorporated.  

Yes there are issues in how we treat each other but the real solution is simply getting to know each other.  

Voting

 Some people continue to act like the last Presidential election can be changed.  It's unclear why, the whole thing has been certified and there is simply no means to o this.

They are buoyed by a meaningless ruling by a court in Pennsylvania that a mail in voting law is unconstitutional.  The decision is probably going to be overturned by their Supreme Court or the nations and the votes will still count.

Watching the shenanigans going on in various states highlights the need for a National set of Standards to protect the votes of Americans.  The failure to have one is clearly an example of why bipartisan politics isn't working.  Slaw to guaranteed everyone's right to vote should garner universal support unless of course on side doesn't want everyone to vote and it is clear by their own statements that Republicans don't want that.

Setting the Agenda

 `I sometimes wonder how many of the people giving Biden poor numbers in polls are progressives who don't think he has done enough.  It might not be a meaningful number for pollsters, but it also might be very meaningful indeed.

A poll released today by a well-respected pollster shows Biden beating his main Republican rival fairly easily.  The headline noted it was surprising and it turns out that those who disapproved of him wouldn't vote for the other guys.

Thenext Presidential election is still pretty far away but we hav the midterms coming, and I guess the good news for Republicans is that most local candidates are not burdened by the parties extreme views.

Three is still time to change that.

Moral Obligation

 Not everything is a matter of opinion.  Facts don't care what you think about them, yet we use opinion polls to justify certain actions.

At times this is self-serving.  If you tell people there were irregularities in an election, they will think there were, even if you provide not a bit of legitimate proof.  The fact that they form that opinion is not proof of irregularities just the public can be played.

Since we seem to have a distrust of Government it's hard to find an authoritative source we can all agree on.  Similarly, in the Covid pandemic people would take slight changes in policy or approach as proof that the entire position was compromised.  It's pretty easy to take a series of normal changes and paint it as a major issue, we see talking heads on TV do it all the time.  

The simple fact is that a few exceptions are not conclusive even if they are real and not fabricated.  Why some feel that misleading so many is acceptable for ratings or elections is a test of our morals not the facts.

Politics

 So Covid can still infect us, and while being vaccinated probably protects you form hospitalization and death. It's not guaranteed but guarantees in this world are hard to find. 

There is a lot of negative press about our President for not doing what he promised to do during his campaign.  Not that he didn't try, just wasn't able to get past the wall the Republicans have built against any meaningful progressive legislation.  We did have two Democratic senators who didn't help on some of this.

If we don't elect the right people, the President doesn't get a magic wand to change minds.

I should also point out that there are still three years in his administration and the midterms.  

The polls don't look good but its early and surprises happen.

Society Has Tough Choices

 The job of Government is to do things that improve the lives of it citizens.  This includes portecting citizens from invaders and making sure they are treated fairly in society.

These functions have gotten increasingly complex in modern society and can be debated.  At what point does society (Government) need to step in?  People have a responsibility to take care of themselves and their families.  Those who can't are reliant upon society.

Society doesn't always treat them well.  Helping the poor takes away from helping your own.  Why exactly are they needy is also a question.  People who are in need because they got injured while serving society are clearly needy, yet we have many homeless veterans who may have only suffered mental trauma.

We live in a developed society where some people feel that they are entitled to live a certain lifestyle.  This depends a lot on how their expectations were built up.  Some went to college and got a degree along with a ton of Student Debt. Unfortunately, some degrees do not lead to gainful employment.  

Faced wth the need to support oneself, start a family and burdened with massive student debt they feel that the advisors who told them to go to college misled them.  College graduates on average make more than people who didn't go, but not every time.

Now they want society to pay their loans.

Ultimately, they made the decisions and while they may have been poorly advised, blanket forgiveness helps the ones that don't need help. 

If you decided to get a job instead, spent time learning a trade and now have a decent income and obligations, should you pay for someone who went to college for 4 or more years to graduate without marketable skills?

It's a tough question but I think we all know the answer. 

Public- Private

 Think about the bureaucracies you have to deal with. Consider the one that almost everyone had to deal with and the one that was the epitome of slow and bad service, Motor Vehicle Departments.  It was a large organization dealing with almost everyone from people who wanted to keep taking their pictre until they got one they liked to people who couldn't fill out a form properly.

I don't know about how everyone else feels about it but from my limited exposure they have improved significantly over the years.  They are still bureaucratic, (they have to be) and at times, seemingly uncaring.  However, if you need a license or registration and do what they tell you to do you will get one. How many millions of vehicles and drivers are there, all of whom dealt with a motor vehicle department.

I can pretty much guarantee that they have faced significant budget cuts over the years and while some of what they do has been automated, they have always managed to get the job done.

It hasn't been turned into a pleasant experience although you see the joy of new drivers who get their first license.  

Think of a private organization that does as good, or better for similar numbers?  Take car dealerships, each of which is privately owned and there is a lot of difference.   Yes, they are trying to sell you a car but we expect them to try and take advantage of us.  I have bought a fair number of cars and I usually have done a considerable amount of research first.  Still, while I leave with a car and may think the salesman was plreasant and helpful, I leave knowing he may have screwed me in some way.

They tend to treat me better than the Motor Vehicle Department, but they are out to maximize their profit which means get me to pay more.  It's often a long tiresome process, where they force you to hear about all sorts of options and financing ou don't want.  0I now see ads on TV for apps that let you buy a car on-line without dealing with a salesman in person.  

Is either of these processes enjoyable?  Not for most people but we have to do them.  In one they are treating you better, maybe getting you a coffee or beverage but you know they are after your money.  In the other they treat you as a faceless customer.  Everyone involved is simply trying to do a job, but one's jobe involves making you pay.  I'm OK with faceless customer myself.