Wage Growth Is Returning

The average American is finally starting to do good again.   As the following chart ahows in inflation adjusted dollars there was very little wage growth.  since 1964 and most of that, if not all came before 1974.

 We are now seeing wage growth to go with job growth.  Unemployment is low and we are seeing some significant wage growth. Yes, we have some inflation, but despite the doom and gloomers who want you to think things are terrible, most think it is not structural but the result of some temporary factors.

  Some inflation is good for the economy.  We certainly don't want it to go out of control, and we don't want to repeat the stagflation of the 70s where prices went up but wages didn't.

          

Not Terrible News

 When I watch economic analysis on TV or read articles, I wonder how stupid do they think Americans are?  If prices go up for say beef, we will buy more pork and chicken.  I'm aware there was an initial surge in prices as we saw demand return to pre-pandemic levels and supply couldn't keep up, but with the exception of the very poor it was a manageable problem.   I don't see inflation getting much worse, in fact I expect it has probably peaked from my personal observation.  Gasoline and most food has recovered from their highs and while still higher than the pandemic lows, not getting worse.

I guess the statistics will verify or not verify that, and the year over year comparison will remain high.  I am more interested in the month over month which tells you the current state of prices.  

We seem to be in a labor shortage and that might impact demand as wages rise to attract workers.  Increased wages will end up as increased prices. This might be an artificial labore shortage that will end soon, the causes are still being determined.  Even then it can be solved fairly easily once we get past the pan-demic issues.

It might not seem like it but Omicron is the variant we needed to end the Pandemic.  While easily spread it seems to be milder than the others and will help to transition the virus into an endemic disease like the flu.  Since it is so infectious and often apparently very mild it will assure herd immunity.

Yes, it might still be deadly for some, but so is the flu.  The answer is get vaccinated which greatly reduces the risk.  

Tax More or Spend Less?

 If you think about our nation as a shared asset where we all live together, we will simply have to decide what amenities we want and how to pay for them.

We have tapped a lot of equity to maintain our lifestyle and if the interest rate goes up or the loans get unpopular, we are all in trouble.

Ideally, we would have enough income to pay our expenses.  That has not been the case for quite a while and doesn't seem likely any time soon.  Luckily, we have the ability to borrow to make up the difference, but it doesn't seem like a policy that can go on forever.  We are running a Ponzi scheme on our citizens and borrowers, paying them with money we get from future victims.  

The prudent course of action would be to increase revenue and reduce expenditures.

We don't want to do either of those things really, so we simply keep borrowing.

This type of economy is not really capitalism although capitalism is the source of the actual income we get.  I guess the good news is that the government doesn't stick the money in a vault and forget about it.  It circulates and stimulates a lot of economic activity.

Money given to employees and others, such as social security recipients is generally spent rather quickly generating economic activity that benefits us.

So in a state with a large number of federal employees, such as Virginia or a large number of military bases or a large number of Government programs, the payments are a significant source of economic activity.

Other programs, such as Social Security, are also big sources of activity.  

The only money not subsidizing our citizens is money spent overseas. If we slow down the spending we will hurt the economy, fairly significantly in some cases.  So maybe raising revenue is the better answer?

Who Is Getting Subsidized?

 People who don't agree with you have the right to vote just as much as you do.  You may have decided they have views that are wrong and erode your rights, but they still get to vote.

Attempts to stop them from voting either by making it a little harder or throw technical difficulties in their way is really just undemocratic.

Trying to manipulate the system so that some votes count less than others, while an old game, is also undemocratic as well as unfair.  Now, in deciding the future of our country fairness may not be the most important thing, but it does say something about our character.

This country should be making sure every citizen is treated equally.  When Rome was the dominant power during it imperial days, one of the things that generally helped it citizens was just that.  Being a citizen of Rome protected you to some extent.

While Rome had Provinces and we have States, citizens should have equal protection anywhere in this country.  

The allegations of voter fraud are really just a manipulation designed to help one side hold onto power.

Think about some old Westerns where Ranchers tried to prevent sheepherders from having a say, because the sheep made the land unsuitable for ranching.  I gather sheep graze the grass too deep preventing it from recovering.  If you watched those movies and I feel like there were a number. most of us sided with the sheep herders, at least I thought we did.  Maybe we were a nation of Rancher sympathizers?

One of the great fallacies in this nation is that the big cities and immigrants take money from the rest of the country.  It's really the opposite, the cities pay much more in taxes than the rural states. 

Federal Taxes Paid by State vs Received - Are You Giving or Getting? (howmuch.net)

Moving Forward or Reliving the Past?

 The problem we have in this country today is that we don't share common goals.

That is a bit of an overstatement, we generally agree that sick people should be treated, people hurt in natural disasters should be helped, unarmed defenseless people shouldn't be gunned down and everyone should have access to education and employment.

I'm sure we all agree that we don't want the planer to become unhabitable in low lying areas like much of Florida because the Glaciers melted around the world.

What we don't agree on is how to achieve these goals.

I should also point out that too many of us simply only care about themselves and their immediate families.

So while we may agree that sick people should be treated, some feel that this is primarily their own problem.  Help should be provided as a last resort and the fact that it may cost them everything they have to pay for care is just a bad break.

Even if you believe this and feel that those who went to school got good jobs and have health insurance should be protected, what should the others do?  They can't go back in time and redo certain life decisions.  

If you are a Christian, are they the prodigal sons who get feasted once they see the error of their ways? 

Decisions and Leadership

 I know that we tend to reserve resolution for the New Year but it's the day after Christmas, we have an ongoing pandemic and it's Sunday so just seems like a good day to reflect.

We don't live in a perfect world and if we are honest we never had a perfect leader.  It would be impossible to please everyone and be a leader because a leader needs to make decisions and decisions mean there are multiple choices.

In making a decision you have a number of choices or leadership styles.  One is to try to please the people who are nosiest or what I call the squeaky wheel approach.  It might silence the wheel but if it dosn't fix the reason is got squeaky it will just keep happening.  It is probably the easiest approach and can get you some short-term success.  No one likes the squeak so doing something is usual popular.  Of course, uninformed reactions have drawbacks. If you consider the actions we took after 9-11.  Yes, we had some success, but we were involved in 20 years of war and the consequences still trouble us today.

The second choice is to consider the future impact of your decisions and make sure the immediate ones fit.  The problem with that approach is deciding what the future should look like.  This is where true leadership comes into play.  For example, do we want better income equality?  It may seems like of course we do, but some would argue that unbridles greed is the real motivator of progress.  Much of the world's progress is related to the profit motive.  If you take it away will progress stall?  The answer is debatable and just based on what seems like common sense you don't want to totally eliminate it nor should it be unbridled.  Is it OK to be a slum lord or use child labor?  

Teaching that decision is important and selling the rest of us on your views is leadership.

Merry Christmas

 I want to wish everyone who celebrates Christmas a merry and happy day.  I also extend those wishes to everyone whether they celebrate it or not.  

From what I can tell the date is pretty arbitrary, but it is as good a day as any other.  

Happy Holidays to all!

Irreconcilable Differences?

 Let us consider two families.  One is a socially conservative one that believe in "old fashioned" values.  They don't want to be blamed for historical injustice even if they might have ancestors who were complicit, but they didn't own slaves or hang anybody.  They believe that abortion is wrong because a fetus is just an unborn baby.  They don't want their children to be transgender or even homosexual and want them to become the next generation of them.  They like hunting and own some guns which they also use for target practice.  They don't see any reason why the life they grew up in has to change and why their children should be exposed to things they don't agree with.  No one is trying to make them do anything they don't want to although they feel like some are.  

Consider a second family, deeply entrenched in progressive values.  They think all people should be free to decide how they want to live.  Women should decide whether they carry a pregnancy to fruition or not and hey should be medically supported either way.  The Government needs to provide every resident certain basic rights, including life (health insurance) liberty (the right to vote freely) and pursuit of happiness (education and retirement support).  People should be able to realize their potential despite the circumstances of their birth and the accumulated wealth of their parents.  

Of these two who is oppressing who?  Both feel threatened by current events and the divisiveness is growing.  

In some cases, the differences are irreconcilable. If you believe abortion is murder, you simply can't condone it.  Certainly, we have willing parents who desperately want to adopt who can't right now or have to go to foreign countries. It doesn't quire work out that way, in real life, as these might not be the babies they want to adopt.  Further, the mothers lose fundamental rights if we treat them as incubators.  

The solution might be better sex education and more availability of contraceptives, but that might be construed as interference in one's values.  

It becomes more problematic when society and schools teach your children thing you don't agree with.  

I suspect over time it will resolve itself much like issues of the past faded away.  It just is disruptive for a time.  

Being Persistent

 Everybody is aware of the fable about the race between the Tortoise and the Hare.  I suspect most of us consider it unrealistic, and that the Hare would win most of the time.

Certainly, in a simple race it does seem so but I think you have to consider the fable differently, where a winner is not so easily determined.

Think about the phenomena of overnight sensations.  The thing about most of them is that while they got famous overnight, they spent years and years working hard.

The one thing that most winners share is persistence.  Trying and failing over and over again until the one time you succeed is the real moral of that fable.  There is no guarantee of success, but we hear about the ones that succeed and not about the ones that fail.

Being focused and single minded goes a long way toward success.  Being like the Hare and resting on your laurels is not.

With such a long time as a Senator and with his determination, I don't think a single setback is the end of Biden's agenda.

There are already signs of another effort.

It is the theme of many a movie or story where the hero gets battered down and appears defeated until he just doesn't quit and eventually prevails.

Sometimes it's not over when many think it is.

News Reporting

 How do you explain the fact that while the economy is booming, many Americans think it is in trouble?

The only real sign of concern is that gas prices are up from a very low pandemic base and demand had overtaken supply for many items.  

This has resulted in some price increases which are characterized as the highest inflation in 40 years.  That may be statistically true but remembering the condition from 40 years ago that inflation was driven be a lack of supply not too much demand.

Transitioning out of the Vietnam war economy, while switching to a greater import economy led to certain issues which resolved themselves in a few years as Americans found service industry jobs.  Those were the conditions that eventually led to the rust belt.  Probably the biggest indicator was that we had high unemployment to go with our inflation.

We have no real unemployment today and in fact we may have a worker shortage.  Any supply shortages we have are minor issues related to ramping up production to meet quickly rising demand.  

Yet the news shows the supply issues the inflation issues, while reporting on the labor shortages and business changes related to the great resignation.  The impact is that there are problems at every turn.  

If you have ever worked in a business, you know that they are always faced with challenges.  However, running out of a product because you didn't order enough is much different than being stuck with inventory you can't sell. One is going to lose you real money while the first is simply less profits.

We have a free press but to sell in today's market they have to report issues. Not that this is new, it is still news when a man bites a dog, not so much when the dog bites the man.  

We don't have a lot of men biting dogs but the news might make you think we do.

Work for Progress

 One of the conflicts we seem to have in this nation is the conflict between the common good and individual good.  It just sems like we no longer take the common good into account when it conflicts with individual desires.

That is too broad a statement and clearly many still strive for the common good, but the numbers do not lie, we have a large unvaccinated percentage of our population who refuse to get vaccinated or follow guidelines about mask wearing for individual reasons.

Perhaps some of those simply don't believe that these efforts work but what they tend to say in ublic is generally couched in their right to decide what they want to do, not what is best for everybody.

When John F. Kennedy told us to see what we could do for America, not what America could do for us, it resonated with young people.  I'm not sure it would today.

Consider the fact that in a congress facing a number of complex issues as we climb out of the pandemic recession, almost every significant vote is along party lines.  

We will continue to get battered by various problems unless as a people we can work for the common good.  

Level The Field

 I don't know for sure that negotiations on Build Back Better are really dead, some things considered dead are resurrected.     Let's assume that it is dead its a setback but not a catastrophe

To some extent the plan is designed to help with the inequitable distribution of wealth in this country by making certain benefits enjoyed be out better off citizens available to everyone.  

These goals will not vanish, but the delay could be a problem.  Some act like the time table is very limited because of potential losses in the midterms.  

Of course if we can pick up a sear or two in those mid-terms it would robably get the package passed.  Most of the provisions in the package are popular with the public and it might be easier to pass them individually except for the filibuster. 

Providint things like universal pre-K for all will help level the playing field in this country.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Stupid Is as Stupid Does

 There are certain complaints I see about how Republicans and Trump supporters in particular are viewed as dumb by the "elitist" Democrats.  Considering one of the arguments for voter fraud as even a little valid, that if so many people believe it happened, something must have happened, then since so many of those people believe idiotic things, maybe they are dumb.

Now they may do OK on IQ tests and possibly can do well in schools, although it seems that they are terrible at math, but if you believe something without any evidence at all I have to question your intelligence.

It is not intellectually valid to demand we prove you wrong, you have to make the case.  If you believe voter fraud was rampant provide real proof, not statistical silliness.

Very few examples of voter fraud have been uncovered and most of those seem to involve people who voted for Trump.  Voter registrations are not voter fraud, if someone died and were not immediately taken off the rolls it is inefficiency, not fraud and unless a vote was cast it is not anything to do with voting.

As Forrest Gump's mother noted, "Stupid is as stupid does".  

Our country had a tradition of peaceful transitions of power even in those few instances where the outcome was in doubt.  There was no doubt this time just rhetoric and we saw an insurrection on Jan 6th.

By their deeds you will know them and that was a clear indicator.

Red Pill, Blue Pill

The biggest problem facing the world today is climate change.  It impacts everyone, one way or another, and while some might actually benefit that will be offset by the overall disruption. The problem wit climate change is that it is starting to become noticeable which might be too late for us to stop it.  We had the earlier warnings but too many ignored them, and our system is designed tp get consensus to take action.

Even now we have deniers, although I have to question whether they really don't accept the science or if they simply maintain that position for political reasons.

Perhaps the real biggest danger is the belief that there is no right or wrong just opinions.

The significant issues facing us have a right and a wrong side.  Take Covid.  Protecting yourself and others is the right thing to do.  Gettng vaccinated is the best way to do that.  Potentially you can achieve some of the same results by social distancing and isolation, but there are limits to those. Still, we see many people who won't get vaccinated. Sadly, bad information is being provided to them often by people who are themselves vaccinated.  Why they believe it is because they don't trust the Government or its representatives.

I saw some projections that with the new Omicron variant we may see horrific numbers of hospitalizations and death among the unvaccinated.  Some vaccinated people will die but far fewer.  

Too many Americas refuse to choose the reality pill and prefer to live in a fake world.  Reality has some ugly truths to deal with

Negative Spin?

 What is maybe most disturbing about our country today is the apparent belief many have that opinions matter more than facts.

They don't.  

Facts are what you should base your decisions on.  For example, almost everyone saw the video footage from Jan 6 attack on the Capitol, but we heard how most of the crowd was peaceful demonstrators or the attackers were infiltrators pretending to be Trump supporters.  Neither of these statements is supported by facts but expressed by commentators who express opinions, not facts.

They might sometimes try to make it sound factual but the anecdotal facts they cite generally wouldn't support the views they express.

We have free speech, so they get away with that, but if you believe them, you are not basing your actions on facts.

Even worse is the false opinions you see expressed on social media.  Right now, there is a concerted effort to make things look worse than they are.to sway voters for the next election.  Often there is a small element of truth but sometimes none at all.

Is inflation a real issue?  It is real but our runaway inflation is hardly really runaway.  We are measuring year over year increases where in one year we had a recessed economy because of Covid and in the next year we had a booming economy.  The fact that prices went up almost 7% between those two periods is not a big shocker, but it is real.  

Covid - In Like a Lion, out like ????

 We are seeing the inevitable virus mutations that allow it to survive and thrive.  Evolution is based on the survivors and reproducers, so the longer a variant survives and the more it reproduces the sooner it becomes the most prevalent.

The early versions were quite serious and in the absence of competition spread rapidly.  Hospitalization rate and death rate were fairly high.  Over time we have passed through a series of variants but only a few became prominent.  Delta was the first one that became prevalent.

There is evidence that Delta was not as deadly as the original although it had similar potential.  When a variant can exist in a seemingly healthy individual it can spread rapidly since that person doesn't even realize they are infected.  

As more people got vaccinated, although not enough, a variant, Omicron, appeared which had adopted more ways to infect people.  It is spreading but most indications are that it is much milder than previous variants.

Not that it can't be deadly, people do die from the flu, but it appears that it will more closely resemble that sort of lethality.  

This is of course the predictable outcome since a virus does not have evil intent.  It manly wants to replicate itself as much as possible.  When it kills a host quickly replication ends.

I imagine it will evolve into a flu like illness that develops new variants each year.  

If You Are Woke and Angry,, Take a Nap!

One of the things that has changed a lot in my lifetime is the attitudes of young people.  Now this might go back to the old boomer saying, don't trust anyone over 30, but very few took that seriously.

For most of my life we lived in what was referred to as a youth culture.  Appealing to young consumers was a pretty surefire path to success.  Youth culture was an important element of consumer industries as the years went by.  It was reflected in our music, our entertainment and our fashion.

We had some significant cultural divides between young and old, in relation to things like gay marriage, civil rights, and other issues.  

What inevitably happens is the young become less young and the rebelliousness lessens.  The values you embrace become mainstream or you embrace mainstream values, and you are rebelling against yourself.

Maybe I'm just turning into an old fogey but some of the things that are issues now just seem ridiculous.  This pick your own pronoun is just silly.  I support every persons right to live the life they want and love whoever they want, but if they look like a male, I will probably use he, him.  If they prefer something like "they" either wear a sign of except the one I use.  

It just isn't much of an issue as I see it.  Also, this inquisitional world using social media to find old mistakes and act like they are relevant is absurd.  We have replaced Jesuits with trolls and burning at the stake with cancel culture.  The motivation seems to be to get a viral post and I gather that can pay off.  

It is probably the golden age of that now since many prominent people of today did not consider the consequences of social media 20 years ago.  When I think back to my high school and college years, I am thankful it wasn't recorded. 

I think a lot of woke people need a good nap or a time out. 

Invest In Us

 One of the hardest things to measure is whether an investment now will pay off in the future.  In the financial world there are safe investments and risky investments.  The riskier the investment the bigger the potential payout has to be.  Effectively multiply the potential investment by the chance of a payout and that needs to exceed any investment or its too risky.

There are many assessment tools in use and the simple formula above is certainly not universal, but it at least makes some sense.

It also matters if losing your money is something you can accept.  We have had crashes and depressions where even safe investments collapsed.

Investing by the Government is trickier because the payout is not just financial and not direct generally.  Does anyone doubt that the interstate highway system was worth building?  It has had a tremendous impact on economic growth which has led to increased taxes.  One can do some calculations using broad indicators but any numbers would be, at best, estimates.  However without doing the math our logic tells us it was worth it.

If you look at the current Democratic priorities, they involve investing in physical infrastructure and maybe more importantly human infrastructure.  The first one is done but the secon is still being debated.  It shouldn't be because human infrastructure is the biggest return on investment we have.

Admittedly it is hard to measure but we see how under our current structure so much of it is wasted.  Providing more children with the skills they need to create and prosper will pay off.  They will usher in the future with ingenuity and desire.  It will certainly pay off for the country. 

There is no better investment really.

Was It Climate Change?

 Well, we saw devastating tornados in December causing unprecedented damage in in a number of States.  As much as I think this is related to climate change, it certainly isn't proven.  It is another in a series of very unusual weather events that seem to happen with more frequency.

There was tremendous damage and many lives lost.  These were Americans and in one fell swoop they and their families lost everything.

If you believe God created this planet and this world as our home you might have to wonder what made him/her to destroy that part of it?  When this sort of thing happened in the bible, the prophets were quick to blame the sinfulness of the Israelites.  I'm sure some of our evangelical will do the same. 

The fact that we allow sinfulness is all God needs to punish others somewhat randomly. I guess not standing up to.

We neeed to help the people victimized but we need to realize the real problem is the damage we have done and continue to do to our atmosphere. 

The clock is ticking.

Inflation, a Tiny Issue

When I was looking at the latest inflation data the items that are up the most are energy, cars and housing with a nod to some food items.

The more relevant number for most people is the 4.9% rise which excludes food and energy.  The worst item impacting most Americans is gasoline, but we see that starting to decline.

Considering how much money has been distributed for covid relief and the amount of unemployment pumped into the economy, if we faced normal inflationary pressures, it would be a lot higher.

Inflation is certainly a bit of a problem, but I fail to see how in this economy it is a crisis.  Unemployment is low, we are seeing significant increases in Social Security and pay increases have been substantial.  

If it starts to accelerate or increase out of control, we will have a problem.  We are already seeing energy cost come down.  There isn't a real shortage in food, more imported containers.

I'm sure that inflation is a problem or even crisis for some people.  When we had what looked like rampant inflation under Ford and then Carter, I remember everyone thought the sky was falling.  Well it was a real problem then but it's hardly remembered today.

Jobs solve all our economic ills, and we have plenty of them.

The right wing media will continue to talk about it but it really is a blip that we will forget about in a few months.

Right Direction But No Bull's Eye

 I like to answer online surveys.  I'm not sure why but whenever one pops up I tend to answer it.  Do my opinions about what stores I like or what I eat or anything else matter or even inform anyone, I don't know.

I assume someone is collecting this information but you also have the problem of poorly worded questions.  I took one just a while ago that asked me if I thought the country was headed in the right direction.  It was a tough one but I decided to go with yes which was the answer of only about a third of the people who answered.

Now it was tough because it could be going in the wrong direction but that is a number of directions.  The media seems to have decided that Biden represents Progressives and therefore the country is moving that way.  Certainly, compared to the previous administration it is but many progressives I hear and see think i isn't moving fast enough or far enough in that direction either.

That's why it was tough to answer.  I would like to see certain things happen that seem unlikely.  Protecting Abortion or really protecting women's right to choose is one.  To be clear, my wife and I lost three pregnancies to miscarriages, and I never would have considered abortion.  It is still in my opinion an individual choice and as much as I would tell anyone considering it not to do it, I don't have the right to impose my opinion on them.  Since much of the country and maybe the Supreme Court are seemingly doing that I feel that is the wrong direction for the country.

Similarly issues like voting rights sensible gun laws and equal protection under the law are all seemingly in danger I worry about those.  

I almost answered the question negatively but not because of anything the President is doing.  In fact I think he is doing great dealing with problems as best he can.  He isn't a radical progressive he is an American with a long history of service to this country, so I answered that the country is headed in the right direction.  

Unfortunately, it is wobbling along the way.

Every Cloud Is Lined With Black

 If you read the information on some of the financial sites, you might get the impression that a booming economy with low unemployment and some moderate inflation is horrible news that might cause the Federal Reserve to tighten up the money supply.

The CPI numbers are coming out later today d many are predicting they will be the highest in 40 years.  That sounds a bit ominous but even if they are they will be no where near where they were in the early 80s.  

I'm not convinced inflation is a real problem and since we are adjusting social security benefits by 5.9% w so be able to handle the increase.  Two of the drivers last month were energy (30%) and meat (11%), particularly beef.  Both of those were related to specific issues that at least to me seem to have eased a bit , although prices go up faster than they come down.

We are building in inflation with a tight labor market and a new way of doing business.  Certainly, many businesses, especially in those providing services, have had to increase costs because of Covid prevention measures.  I don't know what the full impact of this will be, but it won't be more than the market will bear, or they will go out of business.

It is very hard to predict today's number since the month of November seems like a transition month.  It started out with increasing energy prices but ended up with decreasing ones.  There are still some supply shortages and as I pointed out some increased costs related to preventative efforts.  

I know that much of our financial press will paint the blackest picture they possibly can. There has been a tremendous economic recovery but the financial press sees a dark lining to every silver cloud.

Easier Voting

 In today's environment we see the two parties defined in certain ways by the press and social media.  For example, I've been a Democrat my whole life and I didn't have to be woke.  I simply had to believe that the Democratic party had better policies than the other choices. 

On the other hand not all Republicans have to be white supremacists. Some are and a lot of the messaging reflects that, but the majority realize it is wrong and anti-democratic as a policy.

Man of the things covered in the media and even more so on social media is the most extreme positions.  For example, the defund the police chant during the protests last summer didn't ever mean what it sounds like. Maybe it did for some individuals but what they really meant was reduce the funding for paramilitary equipment and use that money for training and employing different skill sets so we have less incidents of American citizens being killed for no reason.

Our system is designed to point out the conflicts because it is more exciting than pointing out similarities.  People have been convinced that one party is out to take away their guns and their right to be individuals while the other people are convinced the other party is opposed to fair elections.  

Exaggerating the other Parties policies may help you win elections but then again maybe not.  It works because in our system the main winner in most elections is Apathy and getting out your vote is often the biggest problem.

Angry and upset people do vote and so both parties try to get their supporters angry and upset.

Every registered voter should be proved with an easy way to vote.  Some think this would lead to fraud, but deciding elections based on the low turnout we often see is the real fraud.

Fixing Inequities

 You see a lot of so-called Republicans raising concerns about the deficit and national debt now that we have a Democratic Administration.  These seem like legitimate concerns except of course most of the concern simply wasn't there when the previous administration was in charge.

The latest bills were designed to be deficit neutral and while that is based on estimates that can be challenged, the result would not be the numbers being thrown around.   It is also a bit disingenuous when they passed the tax break that greatly expanded the deficit not that long ago.

There are two theories of Government, one is that leaving the money with private industry and private individuals will result in better spending decisions.  Well it will result in more selfish ones and as far as industry is concerned that is OK.  However as far as infrastructure and human investment it hasn't worked.

Our infrastructure is out of date and in some cases dangerous and our human support infrastructure is never created.

Families in this country are penalized for things that are needed for them to work and thrive.

Things like day care, pre-school educations, college debt, paid parental leave are disasters to our middle class.  The real question is should the development of our future generations be a matter of luck as to what family you were born into?  It is now.

Clearly wealthier individuals have a tremendous advantage which in a merit-based system is counterproductive.

It is societies best interests to develop as much talent as possible for as many as possible.  Yes, in our current system a few have been able to do well and, in some cases, extraordinary.  

Doing well shouldn't be extraordinary, it should be the norm

.

Day Of Infamy

 Today is the anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor by the Japanese.

While we have moved into a world of conspiracies, and some believe we knew the attack was coming and let it so we could enter the war, that says more about us than it does about the actual event.

We had no doubt at the time and withing a few days we were at war with the Axis powers and looking back the result seems inevitable, at the time it didn't.

The Japanese had swept across much of Asia and seemed almost unstoppable.

The Germans had subdued almost all of Europe and North Africa.

Our industrial might would eventually result in victory but we needed a place to stage invasions and if Britain had fallen we would have been hard pressed.

Similarly in the Pacific, much of our fleet was lost and it was definitely a toss up until we won at Midway.

What is important to remember is how Americans lined up to fight for out values and how many sacrificed for our beliefs and form of Government.

One such patriot. Bob Dole, passed away this week and while he was a Republican he was first and foremost an American.

Some of our current politicians put party before country.  

Biased And Deceptive

 Every morning I watch the same news show.  It is a local show and clearly not the best but it does report things about this area that the others don't and I like the weather being more local.

For the last few months they had a feature where they reported the increase in Gasoline prices every day and listed stations where you could get bargains.  It seemed a bit excessive but prices were up from the pandemic lows and the argument was that the price increases were hurting people and they were trying to help.

Well I noticed this weekend that Gasoline was down nearly 10 cents a gallon at the local station.  I imagined this would be big news on the program but it wasn't even mentioned.  Wouldn't those hard hit families want to know and wouldn't they also want to know where the chearpest gas was?

I've also noticed they like to show the same pictures of empty shelves and talk about the supply chain issues.  I read somewhere and it seems to ring true that those are stock images used by stations around the country and not reflective of this area at this time.

Last year when everybody was panicking about the virus there were definitely things that were hard to get.  I remember being in a store in Virginia where cleaning supplies, paper towels and toilet paper were simply not available.  

However that all passed and by this year most shelves seemed quite well stocked.  There are container ships baked up at various ports and I'm sure those products are causing certain problems but when I go shopping on-line or in-person it's just not much of an issue. 

The news would make you think it was.  

I wouldn't call the news fake, just a bit biased with a touch of deception. 

Fooling People Most of the Time

 I have to admit I'm often confused by things others say are common sense.  For example, CNN felet the need to fire Chris Cuomo becasue he was heling his bother.  Now if he used his position to intervene that would be one thing but I didn't see anything to show that ethical line had been crossed.  In fact I don't even think that if he had it would matter since unrelated news opinion shows are very often extremely biased in how they report things.  Had he gone on his show and said his brother was innocent, everyone would know he was biased so what would it matter?

I don't have any relatives in political office except a sister-in-law who just got elected to her school board but if I did and they got accused of something that I was sure they didn't do, I would think expressing that opinion is fine and fact maybe required.

In the 2016 election we saw how Hillery's decision to go high when they went low failed.  Nice guys often do finish last. Following a set of unwritten rules when the other side ignores them is not a successful strategy.  There's an expression about bringing a knife to a gun fight.  It's a bad idea.

Right now we see a lot of media bias towards the right.  As best as I can figure, the constant attacks accusing the mainstream media of being biased has caused them to err trying to be fair.  Facts like the election was fair or the vaccine is safe, don't need to be balanced by radical unhinged views to be fair.

I don't know where this reference comes from but there was a saying about could 30 million French men be wrong?  Yes they can.  In fact I sort of question the Abraham Lincoln claim that you can fool all of the people some of the time and some of the people all of the time but you can't fool all of the people all of the time.  

Maybe you can.

Capitalism Is The Answer

 I was watching a show where some panelists were discussing the future and whether we would remain the economic leader or us.  They were divided but what surprised me was the failure to discuss what I believe will be the determining factor.  in fact they seemed to think it favored the Chinese.

we are a capitalist Democracy and they are a Communist dictatorship.  they are much better than us of doing what they are told while we aren't. As was pointed out they are able to complete big projects faster than us most of the time.

Unless we are properly motivated.  When profit is involved we can do miracles.  Consider the vaccines developed.  The competition led to our having vaccines which work and are effective.  This was the result of capitalism.  

The great advantage of Capitalism is that everybody can benefit and not just the State. 

This diversity of opportunity leads to creativity that totalitarian regimes can't duplicate.  This release of creativity has led to our economic domination in the past and will keep us in the lead as long as we keep it.

The idea that a communist dictatorship can dominate us is,to me, ludicrous. 

Get Things Done

 Isn't it time we asked our Representatives to do their job instead of showboating?

Managing the Government and passing bills is not simple to do but simple to understand.

We have constitutional protections of our rights although some of those may be shifting.  Representatives can certainly make speeches but personal attacks on each other seem wrong.

The drama we just had over funding the Government was simply wrong.  It will happen again.

We have some major issues still facing us including the virus and climate change.  I'm not sure why we can't work together to solve them.

When your position is to oppose any solution if proposed by the other party, you don't have a solution.

That makes you part of the problem.

Voters will notice.

Heating Oil - Cheap?

 I got my first delivery of the season yesterday and I was sort of dreading it.  I was pleasantly surprised.  The bill was significantly less than some I have received and the price of the oil seemed cheaper.

I see gasoline is up but heating oil is not refined like gasoline is.

I don't want to imply the oil was very cheap, it just wasn't the horror bill I was sort of expecting.

I used to put a lot of miles on my car every week and over the last 12 years I've seen the price of gasoline fluctuate a lot.  I never really had a choice so it was what it was.  I changed cars in the middle of that period and my new car uses less gas tan my old Crown Vic did but I don't feel it makes much difference.

The current increases are coming off historic lows but are hardly the highest I remember.  Maybe I' fortunate but the difference over the years never made any real difference.  These prices wouldn't either.

We live in a world where we have media and a political party on constant attack mode.  There was a lot of criticism of the prior President but he always had his propaganda network.  I was reading a USA today story about Joe Biden's performance.  I don't read that paper since I stopped getting it in various hotels free but the article seemed to focus on the negative stories of the last year.  For example it focused on the somewhat chaotic last days in Afghanistan.  Fair enough but being out of that country after 20 years is a godsend.

Nothing about climate change or the historic infrastructure bill.  It seemed to have a negative spin to me.

 I think the greatest success of the radical right wing media is that it caused mainstream media to veer a bit right because of the constant criticism.  Reporting both sides of a story is important but if you are giving election fraud equal time, when you know it is malarky, who are you serving?

Omicron Thoughts

 The announcement of a new variant of Covid apparently has the world in a tizzy.  It is thought to be more infectious than the prior ones but as far as I can tell not more lethal.

As it spreads a bit we see reactions from countries and questions as to whether the vaccines will be effective.

Not being a scientist I'm in no position to know but that isn't stopping anyone else so here's my opinion.

The vaccine will be less effective until they modify it.

It is unlikely to be more lethal but it has some different symptoms.

It is becoming much like our present day flus, new variants every year that will require new vaccines.

Like the flu it will always be potentially lethal but like the flu, which was extremely virulent at first it will be part of the background noise.

There will be more and better treatment options as we go.

Mask wearing in public will be more common.

Just my thoughts.

Thoughts

I was watching on the news a group of about 20 white nationalists march in a local town on Saturday.  It was very unclear what the reason was and they marched, waved flags shouted some nonsense and eventually went home or maybe out.  

I guess the chant about how they will not be replaced might be the most relevant to why they marched.  They will be replaced, we all will, but they mean they want to be replaced by more white people.  They should stay home and make babies if that is the case.

The distinctions they make are absurd really.  White people do not represent a separate piece of the human race.  It's also a flexible group which used to exclude many people who are now welcome with open arms 

I don't know about these individual marchers but most of them looked like they wouldn't turn down a date with almost anyone even if it involved race purity.

Human nature being what it is, when people are placed in close proximity to each other there is interaction.  Hating a group is easy, haring an individual is harder.  Once you think of them as people the fight is pretty much over.

The replacements are likely to be a darker shade of pale.                                                                                                                                            

Modern Life

 Considering world history and archeological records we live in a unique time and place.  Generally, we are safe from surprise attack simply because we exist.

We aren't really safe but the kind of thing we lived with throughout world history where an invading army would attack our city, capture it, kill or enslave most of its population and force it to pay heavy tribute is not something we expect to happen.

It does still happen in some parts of the world where warlords have control but I can go to sleep pretty sure I'm not going to wake up as Viking, Huns, Goths, Mongols or any number of other raiders devastate my city.

It's not as far away as all that if you consider tactics used in recent wars.

We talk about slavery as a horrible crime and in this country we associate with our treatment of African captives, but throughout history it was more widespread.  Romans enslaved an unknown but sizable number of men and women from the areas they captured and used them for various purposes.

They were still slaves whether they were assigned to salt quarries or someone's household.

The idea that you could be a respected citizen of you city or village only to be stripped of everything and walked off in chains the next day is not a real possibility..

We get to squabble over pronouns.

Price Fluctuations

 Yesterday for a number of reasons, including a new Covid variant, impacts on the stock market and oil prices.  Oil was impacted by potential decrease in activity because of the new variant, extra oil going on the market from the Strategic reserve and then the traders covering positions once the price moved.  

We really should be reducing our use of oil on a long range but interestingly during the Pandemic last year many people crowed about how the reduced usage wa good for the planet.  It sort of was but not much, it was a one year blip, that led to very low prices and a minor reduction in emissions.

We don't realy have a shortage of oil, we simply have speculators bidding the price up or down based on potential changes.  If they are convinced oil is going up they buy at current prices to sell later at a profit.  The reverse is also true.

If we had an actual shortage, we would have lines to get oil and some places would have none.

Just speculation and greed.

Seasonal Work

For some reason this is Black Friday, not a celebration of Black culture but simply a day that shoppers buy so much that the bottom line of many stores goes into the black, or profitable.

That's a statistical measurement and not an actual one.  I would suspect it describes very few stores.  There is no doubt that the Christmas season is very significant to retail and therefore also to their distribution chains.  I have fond memories of this time of year going way back to when I worked part time jobs in High School.  It was a good way to make a little money, and I do mean little, while being part of a bustling world where everything was sort of critical.  I used to work in a shipping department of a high-end clothing store folding clothes for shipping.  The customers were often people I had heard of and everything had to get packaged and shipped in time for Christmas delivery.  

Thinking back I remember it as a fun time although on the first day the head of the department literally took out a bull whip and cracked it over our heads.  I didn't think he would ever actually use it but some of my fellow workers said he would.  It provided a buzz and a lot of conversation, an ice breaker and it ended up providing us seasonal workers something in common.   

I was impressed with how well he handled it.

Today he would probably be charged with harassment.

That was a different world.

 

A Day of Thanks

Today is a day we give Thaks and we have a lot to be thankful for.  Not everything is perfect but it never has been. 

Still we 're not mired in a long ground war in Asia, Jobs are plentiful and while still active we have tools to combat the pandemic.  We also are finally starting to fix our infrastructure and hopefully address problems facing the American families.

Oil prices jumped as demand returned and the demand for goods have led to some supply chain bottlenecks.  Those things will quickly pass in the scheme of things.

We have a long way to go to address climate change and the faster we start the better.  At least we realize it's a problem. 

Some point to the historical stories of pilgrims and Indians and say it never happened the way we tell it.

Not sure why I would care, we know didn't treat native Americans very well but giving thanks for what is happening today is unrelated.

I think we can take one day out of the year to count our blessings.

After the Weekend people can get back to bickering.

Human Infrastructure

 How much has the interstate highway system been worth to the country over its existence?  I don't know if it can be measured but it has provided better access, better ability for trucks to move cargo and ultimately safer driving.  It was a big cost for its time and fiscal conservatives said we didn't need it, but infrastructure does pay dividends.

We've already passed the physical infrastructure part but the human infrastructure part is still pending.  Providing services to all our residents helps to level the playing field for working families who otherwise couldn't afford child care 

We have terrible income inequality in this country and one way to combat that is to take social infrastructure and fund it with treasury funds.  This removes significant expenses so it amounts to an indirect pay raise for our middle and lower classes.  There is a squeeze on the Middle Class where they make to much to get certain benefits but not enough t afford them.  It forces tough decisions and problematic home life.

Investing in families is never a bad thing.  The more we can free up middle class people to pursue their dreams the more return we will see in family values and outcomes.  Problems will still exist but if all children get the preschool they need to compete, the health care and a better home life, we are certainly on the right track.

Midterms

 There is a year to go before the midterms but we knew the results right after the Presidential Election.  Of course this was based on prior performance which as every prospectus ever warns is not a guarantee of future performance.

Now we know that the off year elections didn't go that's mainly based on Virginia and New Jersey as far as I can tell.  The fact that the candidate in Virginia for the Democrats was a prior Governor but I think that's almost always a mistake.   You can't serve as Governor without making enemies (and friends) but the enemies are more motivated.  

Now thanks to a few situations like the supply chain backup and the gas prices we see low approval numbers for Biden.  So the election results predicted after the last election for the mid-terms are almost a certainty now.

They may turn out to be right but they may  go the other way.  There are some causes that might inspire more participation, which is generally bad for the Republicans.  Gas prices already started to come down and the comparison point with last year will soon reflect the initial price increases as covid decreased.

Covid is certainly alleviating but we need to push vaccination which will help a lot.

Supply chain is starting to catch up and in a few months won't be much of a story.  

The infrastructure plan is going to create jobs (and traffic jams) all over the country.

Assuming the build back better passes there will be some immediate relief to many Americans.

One might expect Biden's numbers to increase but we will see.

Remember the prediction was based on a solid sample.

Even though it didn't always hold up.

Legal Rules

Why do we vote for judges?  You would think that they should be non-political and selected based on Merit.  I recently had to vote on a whole bunch of judges that I really knew nothing about, so I defaulted to party lines.  I would like to think that they will distribute justice fairly and evenly without prejudice or bias, but I don't really know.   

I'm under the impression that this is not how most countries handle this.  In most European countries a council of experts reviews applicants and make recommendations to the appointing official. Can politics play a role?  Clearly it could but not as clearly as in this country.

Judges clearly need to know the law and the precedents as well as the rules of evidence.  Because of out precedent system, we have rules that often favor the defense.  Take the fruit of the poisoned tree theory.  This holds that if the police screw up part of an investigation, say illegal search or failure to obtain a proper warrant, the evidence obtained can not be used.  

This came about when the Supreme Court decided that no other remedy would serve to correct police misconduct.  Well what about the dangerous evidence that is no longer admissible?  There are two main parties involved, the accused and the public.  Police do represent the public but the public has very little to do with their behavior.  When evidence gets thrown out due to a technicality, the public is put at risk.  

The legal system is there to serve the public.  It serves it best by uncovering the truth.  When the truth is suppressed it is not doing its job.  

Really Just Gun Violence

 There are problems with our jury system, it can be unpredictable and arbitrary and perhaps the biggest issue is that the lawyers who represent the State and the Accused aren't often at the same skill level.

Its a relic of our feudal past when the only alternative was to leave it up to an even more arbitrary system.

Its hard to imagine a black man going to another state, carrying a rifle, exchanging taunts with a crowd, shooting three and killing one. being acquitted.  In fact its hard to believe he would have been allowed to walk away in the first place.

The people involved will have to live with their consciences and in some cases civil trials.  

Why this is even a political cause is odd.  No one opposes the jury system and while the judge may have been a bit biased, the trial was essentially fair.

The people of this country have to decide what sort of laws they want and maybe Wisconsin should look at its self defense statutes.

It isn't the first bad verdict and it won't be the last.  As long as the jury was working in good faith, it simply is.

Justice?

 We saw other examples of our criminal justice system last week.  We saw two men convicted in the murder of Malcom X exonerated after nearly 60 years and we saw another man found not guilty of murder though there is no doubt he killed two men.

Over the years we have seen many miscarriages of justice many of which we only know about because of subsequent corrections.  Of course it isn't much of a story to write the person committed the crime, was caught convicted and sentenced appropriately except maybe right after it happened. 

Most of the time the authorities get it right.  Often the cases are so shut and dry that they are resolved simply via plea bargains.  

Watching TV shows you might get the impression that many innocent people take plea bargains and if you ask incarcerated people they mostly claim they were innocent.  Most weren't.

Our system does at times convict innocent people and many of those people are poor minority people.  We however mostly get it right.  In fact we have many safeguards in place to protect defendants although most of them were put in place because of abuse.

In fact most of our criminal justice system runs on the barter system.  Suspects are simply trying to get the least amount of time while the authorities are mostly trying to get a conviction.  The victims generally are hardly involved in most of this although they may be asked to agree to the sentence.

It sort of works.  Sometimes it fails spectacularly.

Sedition?

 Last night in a performance designed to delay the House vote on the Build Back Better bill, the progressive half of Biden's agenda, the House leader of the Republicans set a record for talking while saying nothing.

It was a long meaningless thing and it accomplished nothing although it might have garnered some sound bites after editing.

The only goal, if there even was one, was to force the vote to the dead of night but that failed as the Democrats simply shifted the vote to Friday.

One could debate this bill, any bill really, but the opposition here simply opposes any Democratic initiative.  Its part of the slow laborious process to move this country into this century as far as taking care of our people and our climate.

At some point, either during the Clinton Administration or maybe the Obama one, the Republican party has one objective only, defeating the Democratic incumbent.  In a number of elections since then they were able to get vicories while losing the popular vote because of the electoral college.  

They also have a coordinated plan to entrench minority power via redistricting, suppressing hostile votes and allowing state legislatures to change outcome.

Its time the American people realized we are in the midst of a slow moving coup designed to destroy American Democracy.

Normal, not New

 There are people who believe the radical right's rhetoric about Joe Biden and how he s ineffective.  Well then how did he accomplish more in just 10 months than the prior occupant did in 4 years?

We are actually out of Afghanistan even if the exit looked a bit messy on TV.  Things happen, but we are no longer risking our young men.

We have seen a great decease in Covid although there are significant groups still refusing the Vaccine. Yes the vaccine did start under the prior administration but most of the country returned to mostly normal behavior.  

A lot of relief money was injected into the economy and i worked as unemployment has decreased and there are plenty of jobs available.  We have seen some price increases but with some exceptions people are shrugging that off as sales are showing strong increases.  

Wages are up and we haven't seen an influx of undocumented immigrants. While that problem is not sved, it may be unsolvable, the border is no worse than it was previously.

We now have a bi-partisan infrastructure bill that will fund needed improvements to infrastructure.  I get a kick out of right wing commentators who attack obscure provisions that mean almost nothing.  It will be a great improvement over the previous administration inability to get a bill introduced, let alone passed.

We are now getting close to passing the second part that will be a great benefit to the regular citizens of this country.  Interesting how the media played up all the negotiations as if they were destroying the administrations policies instead of the normal give and take of Washington politics. Maybe the last 4 years of near dictatorship confused them?

In the media everything is blown up out of proportion.  Life in America is returning to normal and we are entering a holiday season prosperous, with no wars and plans to combat climate change.

Isn't that what we want?

Inflation Reports

 Looking forward we can expect our inflation number to stay about the same if current prices also stay the same.  This is the year over year number we are so fond of and because it measures changes from 12 months ago, we already know last years input.  Since there was no significant increase last November, the year over year number will stay abut the same unless there is a significant change in current prices.  The base numbers started to increase earlier this year so figure 4 to 5 more months of inflation headlines.

If you want to know what is gong on now you really need to look at the monthly number measured against last month which was much lower than the year over year number.  

There is certainly inflation, there almost always is, and its higher than recent years but the surge in demand is unlikely to last past the holidays, although it might.

Our supply chain problems plus economic recovery or maybe just growth create upward price pressure.  How long will it take to resolve supply chain issues is dependent on having enough workers.

We may be seeing a demographic impact as the population ages and the workforce shrinks.  Working age population has been flat over the last few years while we see increases in elderly people, although we may need to redefine that.  

The only age demographic with significant growth ia elderly people.  

People live longer and become net drains on the economy instead of contributors.

We are seeing some decrease in savings but the cause for this is a bit uncertain until more data is available.

Crisis? Where?

 Apparently we are now in an "Inflation Crisis" according to some right wing publications.

This is based on a year over year measurement in October which showed a 6,2% increase from the prior October.  The core inflation which excludes oil and other volatile items was 4.2%.

That is up from what was a period of record low inflation but hardly seems the crisis, considering the fact that it is impacted by the supply chain issues and other events that won't last forever.  Or maybe they will.

Is it possible that the supply chain is simply irreparably damaged?

Is our national food industry irreparably broken?

It doesn't seem likely, although we are facing a shortage of workers as women seem unwilling to return to their old jobs and many people don't want to commute like they once did.

Adjustments are necessary and almost certainly will be made.  

Energy prices will decrease, as will food and import prices.

The eonomy always self corrects and right now it has to work through the Covid era.

We really seem to be in a chicken little world as everything is dramatically portrayed.

Just carry on, it will be fine.

Intentional Misinfomation

 I don't remember exactly when but at some point is some security briefing I remember being told how our enemies were intent on destroying us from within.  We were too strong for a direct attack but our openness made us vulnerable to various types of cyber attacks.

I look around at where society is today and think, they were successful.  The internal divisions have grown so deep that at least one side believes it will take violence to win.  I know that social media has opened the door to bad information and provided fuel for the fire of hatred they spawned.

I should probably start taking notes but I notice more and more how people on socal media attack the Government as a matter of course.  Gas prices are up, blame the Government, 

Its also true in network TV shows where the Government keeps secrets, covers up things and lies to the citizens for selfish purposes.  

It just seems too organized to be the work of a few conspiracy nuts  It also doesn't seem like what I would call normal opposition politics, unless of course they are at war.  Yes some of it is promoted by right wing news media which seems odd, but our foreign enemies don't want us to become them they want us to fight among ourselves.

They create issues out of no issues quite effectively.  One of the talking points they seem to be pushing is how oil and gas prices were influenced by canceling some pipeline projects.  Sounds almost reasonable until you realize those projects were not operational and could not impact the current prices.  Maybe future prices but the increase today is unrelated.

I watch a show on a local channel most morning called the new normal.  With very few exceptions they simply talk about previous practices, nothing new.  

We live in a pretty desirable age over all.  Our country is at peace, there are plenty of jobs, technology is reducing many headaches.  Some problems remain and some will always last.

The acrimony in our culture would imply things are falling apart.  For there to be such a disconnect between perception and reality, I suspect intent.  

Short Economic Analysis

 Starting in the 1970s more or less, the US entered a period of deregulation that has shaped our world today.  After World War 2 and during the period following we had significant Government regulation but economists and the Republican party (and some Democrats) argued that free market would reduce prices, increase production, create jobs and generally create growth.

The premise certainly worked in many ways, but the jobs weren't always here.  Take the electronics industry.  We pay a lot less for electronics than we would if they were American made.  So we stopped building televisions and started selling imported ones.  The consumer won but the electronics worker lost.  

This is still the era of free markets but free markets work when the playing field is level.  China was a great winner from this era as well as the American consumer.  Most of the job losses were in manufacturing states and more jobs were gained in service industries.

Is this model a bad one?  Well if you lost your job in manufacturing, not so much but if you work in Health Care or many other service industries, it was pretty good.

Now this continues while we also increased technology and complex service suppliers.  The odds are that your technology was manufactured elsewhere but your software wasn't.

Consider this a great leveling of resources where expensive unskilled labor can be found in cheaper locations.  This brings down our costs of products but leaves our unskilled labor unemployed.  

The obvious answer is to train them, but realistically, many of them don't want to be trained so the reality is they take low paying jobs, drink too much and resort to things like opioids.  They turn their resentment to visible targets, immigrants, liberals, and the coastal elites while still thinking the business owners and Republicans are their friends.  Well their hero, Ronald Reagan cost them dearly even if the trade bill was signed by Clinton.  

This will ultimately self correct for the nation but not for individuals.  The political consequences are a significant number of  discontented people who feel betrayed.

Maybe they were.

Lying With Factual Statistics

 Statistics are the best way to lie while reporting factual data.

Prices and wages for example vary over time.  Generally wages go up mare regularly but prices can have big decreases as well as increases.

So when the economy got disrupted a lot of prices fell as inventories needed to be sold off.  Some items became hard to get as demand for retail paper products didn't offset the fall in commercial products of the same type.

Pandemic restrictions led to any number of odd outcomes but there was less demand for many items while some had increased demand.

As we saw demand pick up and since production was reduced we started to see shortages.  Now we like to report statistics a certain way, so for example we saw significant inflation in October measure against last October.  That is factual.  

Now what do we know about last October?  Well ithad sen demand drop due to covid but otherwise not much.  We had seen during the pandemic signifcant decreases n some prices.  Inflation last October was reported at 1.18%.  Economists think 2%inflation is a healthy number.  

So are we in some sort of inflationary crisis?  Certainly not but it gives news people something to talk about.  That leads to some fairly wild speculation about causes. 

For example, stopping construction on a pipeline not yet in production does not impact it because, well it wasn't operational yet.  That could impact the future but it depends on whether the output has another way to get to market and if we even need the output.  

One of the things that I think isn't being covered is our labor shortages.  Many of our food industries are labor intensive and they need seasonal workers.  Seasonal workers have been disrupted via recent immigration policies.

Still a fairly short term increase in some prices is not a crisis for most people.

For some we have been in crisis mode already.  

National Service

 Today we honor the people who served and survived the experience.  They all gave up some period of their lives to serve this country.

The idea of serving the country is a good one.  Military service is clearly not for everyone but some form of mandatory service could go a long way to unifying this country.

Providing young people an opportunity to be productive, possible in exchange for college or trade training would allow them to get out of their comfort zones.  It would also make them engage with people different then them on an equal basis.

Assuming they could be used productively the country would benefit and so would they.  

Its been proposed before and is alsmost certainly not going to happen. 

Pity.

Inflation Thoughts

 Inflation is one of the ways that the economy self corrects itself over time.  Prices seldom go up uniformly so as prices of used cars rise, new cars get more popular and vice versa.  Of course when the cars are impacted by an outside issue like chip shortages you see less availability of new cars increasing the demand on used cars.

The outside pressure is the shortage of chip components.  

We see a big deal being made over the inflation numbers, but it still looks like a temporary increase that will fix itself once the supply issues sort themselves out.  Of course that is tricky and if you look at history all inflationary increases were temporary to some extent.

So how long will it last and is it really a problem?  The current surge in buying is to some extent pent up demand from the pandemic.  The pandemic also contributed to reduce supply as restrictions impacted production of certain items.  The pandemic also contributed to the backup of container ships as harbors were short of workers to process them.

There is probably enough pent up demand and a certain amount of relief buying to carry us into the next year.  Will the media coverage create additional political issues as they harp on the ruinous inflation?  Well it might.  Most Americans see some increase in gasoline.  Certain grocery items have also increased.  

As the various media harp on it, it leaves an impression.  Where I live the local news report every morning about what stations have the cheapest gasoline.  It certainly adds a sense of urgency to the whole situation.

An item of interest is when they tell us the price and say it is the highest since a past year.

That means it isn't the highest ever.

Polls Time Sensitive

 There are sure a lot of predictions being shared about the id-terms which are a full year away.  Some polls show Biden down and potential destroying his party's chances next year.  Of couse that is now and he was up last year so who really knows?

In science and the social sciences, there is a potential problem that when you do a study you impact it.  You are either manipulating the objects to study them or are influencing people you interview by your reactions, even if involuntary.  Its one of the things that makes polling a bit capricious.

People, at least most people want to tell you what you want to hear.  This might not even be conscious.  As a species fitting in is a good survival technique, it creates a safer space than being alone.  So when youget interviewed, with a few exceptions you are trying to feed back the right answers.  

Polling can be importan to a campaign telling it what is popular and what is not.  How predictive it is is another matter.  His popularity should increase now that the party has passed the infrastructure bill.  When these polls were taken the situation being ortrayed was how the Democrats were in disarray and possibly unable to pass anything..  . 

Now of course they have.

Thanks for the Infrastructure, More to Come

 President Biden is expected to sign the infrastructure bill today and it is a major achievement that many didn't think possible in today's Washington.  It passed in a bipartisan way although by no means evenly.  Some Republicans, a minority, voted for it and some Democrats, also a minority didn't vote for it.  Still it passed and billions of dollars are going to flow into all parts of this country to shore up infrastructure and create jobs.

The negative conservative media highlights that the country is doing badly but it really isn't.  Yes we have an increase in oil and gas due to the surge in economic activity worldwide, but a surge in economic activity is a very good thing.  We have record prices in the stock market, low unemployment although some people have left it, an exit from Afghanistan and some progress in climate issues. The surge in economic activity has led to a small increase in inflation which will likely recede soon as supply chains catch up.

Our radical conservative media has taken a surge in economic activity as we recover from covid and portrayed it as a problem.  Dealing with fast growth is a bit of a problem but its a good problem.  With the new bill and money flowing we may have to deal with fast growth a bit longer.

The next bill provides big improvements for the people of this country with most of it offset by taxes on wealthy people.  We are waiting on the congressional budget office to detail the impacts.  Passing it is the way to shore up families providing long needed family benefits to equalize opportunity to all our people.

Its a good start to the Holiday season.  America has a lot to be thankful for and its on the upswing.

Conspiracies?

 I think a lot about why people, at least some people, will believe outrageous claims about things the Government does while ignoring the actual data.

There have been a few instances where the Government, or a part of it, did bad things.  The study about syphilis is one but even that, while clearly racist, was believed by its proponents to have long term good impacts.  This doesn't excuse it, people were harmed and we should have known better, but it wasn't presented as an evil plot.

We also have treated the Native Americans badly over the years, but throughout history conquers have been cruel.  Similar to the way Africans and Asians were considered to be in the way of European Christians trying to civilize their lands we didn't take their needs into account.

The transgressions are fairly rare, although some think they are constant and if you believe the Government faked the moon landing or plotted to kill JFK you are probably too far into the ether to be reached.

There generally are no deep dark secrets although in the course of conducting Government business not everything is disclosed.  First it would be too voluminous and second what matters is the ultimate decision.

Think about some of the conspiracies so far.  They generally rely on a simple idea, the Government can't answer every possible question.  So is periods of Oswald's life are vague, what about that?  Could the moonshots have been faked?  Probably not with the technology of the time but now they could.  Ignore the fact that many nerds here were able to ping artifacts on the moon that would only be there if we were.

Ignore everything that proves you wrong and you can claim its still possible.

It isn't. 

Infrastructure half done

 Policies passed by the Government should favor the most Americans possible.  So a tax cut benefitting the richest should be a bad policy while infrastructure helping everyone should be good.

However, there seems to be a failure in communication.  The first was viewed by many Americans as a good thing because they got a small temporary decrease while the latter is viewed as excessive spending.

The fact that an infrastructure bill has passed and is about to be signed, if not signed already, is a significant accomplishment that even had some bipartisan support.   It is something that the last administration never could do.

America relies upon its infrastructure and it has been neglected too long.  With this bill we can address some of its issues.  

The social infrastructure is just as important but it still faces a few hurdles.  In some ways our country is relying on employers to provide important benefits which means what you get depends on where you work.

Its time for our country to standardize those benefits for our citizens. 

Elections Musings

 November is the month of elections, veterans and giving Thanks. We hve an election every year and this was a year without significant elections for the Federal Government but we did have some significant State elections.

I'm not sure why States would schedule elections historically on off-years since it pretty much guarantees lower turnout.  That might be the goal.  getting people, at least certain people to stay home and not vote seems to be a major goal for some.

Getting people to vote should be the goal.  Some worry that there is a lot of voter fraud and they point to things that are not voter fraud as evidence it exists.

I'm not familiar with every State but the one I live and vote in has not adapted fully to modern technology, and I believe that is likely the case most places.  For example, much of what they know requires self reporting, so if you move and don't change your voter registration you will stay on your old district rolls.

If you move out of state you might end up as registered in two states.  

Now it is possible but somewhat unlikely the if the two states are adjacent you could vote twice, but it would be pretty foolhardy since if caught the punishment could be severe.  The people who say voter fraud exists cite things about dead people registered to vote.  Well once again, self reporting fails when the person dies.  Giving the fact that dead people can't actually vote the only danger would be if someone cast a ballot for them, which going back to 2020 happened a few times and just wasn't a real problem.

I saw a headline about the fact that in one State, 35,000 dead people were still registered to vote.  Cleaning up voter registration roles is not the problem and that sort of report is used to make people think it is.

If it said they voted you would have something.

Bad Press

 One thing the radical conservative media do quite well is set the discussion.  By that I mean it attacks a particular point which leads to a response setting the stage for the discussion.

For example, most of the discussion about the end of our pressence in Afghanistan related to the Airport confusion and not the fact that 20 years of involvement, billions of dollars and avoidance of future deaths were being ended.

By steering the discussion, the facts don't change just the perception.  So the exit from Afghanistan registers with many Americans as a bad thing, not the end of a long fruitless war.

Take immigration.  This country was built on immigration and the impact of it is almost universally favorable with a few exceptions.  They complement the labor force and help the economy, not hurt it.  They have very little impact on most Americans but supplement our labor force in jobs that are often hard to fill without them.  By the second generation they are as American as anybody.

Yet most discussion about them revolves around negatives pictures and portrayals.  Yes they are held in containment when they first arrive and containment is not a paradise.  This is an important go to for the radical conservative media pulled out whenever they need it. 

The idea that this country is becoming more diversified is something portrayed as the replacement of white Americans in this radical conservative world.  Not replacement just supplementation.    The country of today is not the country of 1776 or the 1800s or even the 1900s.

It grows and changes and we add more Americans, of various sin tones and religious beliefs.

Its who we are despite the negative radical conservative media.

Apathy

 There is a simple element of human nature that plays into elections and explains a lot at times, anger motivates people.

Our system of voting requires a certain amount of motivation.  I almost never fail to vote but yeaterday I did wondered a bit what I was voting for as I prepared to leave.  I did vote but there were almost no candidates or issues I cared about very much.

I could easily have expressed my views in an easier fashion.

You have to wonder about why we have elections on years like this when everything is pretty local and the motivation is simply not there, unless you are angry about something, like losing last time.

I know a lot of effort is put into studying why elections follow certain patterns, and I haven't done any of it, but I do know that if I am angry I am there.  If I am content and happy, maybe not.

The solution is to make voting easier if we want to be inclusive.  

Some really don't want to be so they count on apathy every so often to help them out.

We serve it up a lot.

Election Day, Vote

 There are people in this country who are convinced that they are the actual real Americans with rights not shared by the "Others".  The "others" is everyone that doesn't vote like they do.  They most likely have a "real" job, if they are working, a "real" religion and a "traditional" family that doesn't tolerate this new radical idea that people can choose who they want to be.

It is a mostly white, mostly male dominated sector where men are really men and own enugh guns and pickup trucks to dhow us.  Things were fine until these socialist radical leftists messed it all up with their social equality, feminism and satanic gender identities.  

They are the defenders of the real America and for some reason they have decided a New York ex slum lord, ex developer, ex reality star who has trouble with reality, is their representative.

They are so sure of themselves that they are willing to ignore our great history, or reinterpret it to support their ownership rights.  They weren't the first ones her so they base their claim on violent expansion and the rights of conquest.

Millions of people who may have been here before them are descendants of people brought here as slaves, and since they look different  will always be treated as such.  If you came from the far east and look it, you also will never be one of them, really.  In fact is some convoluted way, people from countries to our south, who originated with European stock are not tainted by their new countries and not acceptable.

The best way to stop them is at the ballot box.  We simply have to get out and vote.

Not too much to ask, although some seem to think it is.

Subversive Christianity

 I doubt this is something most Americans know, although they might have seen it in a history book, but fundamentally the reason Europe was Christian was because the Roman Empire made it the official religion under the Emperor Constantine.  That spread it to all the areas they controlled while missionaries expanded it further.

This was originally Catholicism until the Protestant Revolution although it had a Western Branch under the Pope and an eastern Branch.

The countries of Europe further spread it via thec olonial expansions into North and South America.  The non-European countries might have some Christians but generally don't embrace it and practice Islam, Buddhism, Hinduism, and other Religions.

Christianity at its heart is not a democratic religion.  It was originally under a pope but those who formed protestant sects it is generally run by bishops or elders with the central authority being the Bible, a book written by numerous authors.

There are other books claiming authority but the current bible includes the ones that passed examination as supporting the general views of the cult.

Generally most followers don't really pay attention to its tenets talking about the ten commandments (an old testament list) while ignoring the teachings of Christ who taught that loving they neighbor was fundamental.  They mostly don't.  

The history of the religion includes support for slavery, oppression of women, religious wars and plenty of violence which by definition is not neighborly love.

Individuals may practice his teachings but the religion or cult as a whole certainly hasn't.  In fact it spreads much more hate than love.

They are interested in applying the old testament precepts to our Government, a totally undemocratic concept.  It would be as bad as Sharia Law.  We have seen some examples of this in some localities in the past and it was tyrannical and puritanical.

They get to try to undermine our democracy tax free and therefore we all subsidize their subversive activities.  

I for one don't want to support them or any other equivalent group.

Coup?

 One issue we have today that I don't believe we ever had before, even during the depression is whether we remain a democracy. 

The fact that this is under attack is maybe the scariest things about this Halloween.

It is under attack by the Republican party which wants to install the president they choose rather than the one elected.

They will, like all dictatorial regimes pretend he was actually elected but the votes have been counted and that is not the case.

Even as we watch we see a plan pay out which seems to be the continuation of the reaction to Obama.

Certain people n this country took advantage of the ACA to take over many state Governments in 2010 and have established built in majorities for state houses which get to redistrict.

This allowed the presidency to be stolen in 2016 via misinformation, the Electoral college and media attacks.

It demonstrates how single determined parties can undermine a system of democracy stealthily.

The idea that is being sold is that this country belongs to "the right people" meaning white people of European descent.

That not democracy and we really can't let it happen.

If we actually believe in America.

Government

 Everyone likes to complian about Government, its easy to do and big enough that something is going to be messed up.

Years ago I took a management course that made a point about how Government treats people, it treats everyone the same.  That seems fair but they want to be treated individually.

Oddly our system is designed to root out the corruption common in many Governments and maybe in some levels of ours where special treatment comes with a price tag.  Even here that's sort of true.  I remember a friend of mine who worked for the State Department passport division and he was one of the people who dealt with celebrities who need "Special Treatment".  Yes many times they did need expedited service to meet obligations but he liked his job because it allowed him to meet or at least interact with them.

Their fame got them expedited service while generally the rest of us had to deal with the normal delays (they do try to accommodate urgent needs).

When he would tell his stories no one generally asked him why a Government agency was so solicitous of celebrities?  It just seemed normal.

Often the complaints are based on our own failure to understand the process, which is of course to be expected since we might deal with it infrequently.  I went to get an updated more secure license from my DMV a while back and had gathered up all the documents only to be rejected because one of my proofs was printed out and not the original.  Since I got this document electronically from my employer it never occurred to me that would be a problem.  I did feel that the person I was dealing with knew, based on my passport and other documentation, that I was who I said I was but I had to settle for a lesser license.

When I looked at the website it did stress original documents only but as I said I got this form electronically so in effect it was the original.  

I felt a bit misused, but in fairness how far should we allow a DMV clerk to bend the rules?  

I don't know but common sense should somehow enter into it.

It would help Government and us. 

GMO

 Since pre-history people have been modifying the food we eat via cultivation.  At some point we realized that we could stay in one place if we planted seeds that could feed us.  Maybe it was just coincidence or maybe more deliberate but we learned it and it enabled us to have an established place.

The crops we planted were likely the ancestors of the ones we still plant but they wouldn't have looked much like their modern counterparts, at least in many cases.  We started to modify them at some point by planting the best seeds we could.  

This led to more bountiful harvests.  Now we learned many things over the years, but it has been going on for a very long time.  This was a long process with minor successes along the way until we got to modern times and we learned how to genetically modify our foods.

The difference is we didn't do it by "natural" ways we did it via gene manipulation.  Is it significantly different than the manipulation we have been doing via cultivation?  To some extent.  We can manipulate genes for attributes that would take generations to cultivate into a crop, if we even could.  However, it is in essence another way for humans to increase and improve crops.

Is it safe?  That seems to be the issue raised by many.  The science says it is but some are skeptical of the science since much of it was paid for by the companies selling the seeds.  Still it is published and unless I missed it, much of the criticism relates to what is unknown, potentially.

If you don't want to eat GMO, that's your business but the evidence against it is primarily flawed and mostly anecdotal.  The food we eat has already been modified via thousands of years of human cultivation.. 

Its hard to see much difference.